Nothing says the end of the year to me like stale fruitcake and wild
predictions. While I can do without the sugary brick in the tin, I
couldn’t live without reading and making some educated guesses as to
what the next 12 months might bring. This year we decided that we
should take a more in-depth gander at what we pulled out of our
collective crystal balls in last year's
predictions for 2010 and see what we got right and, more
to the point, what we got hilariously wrong. What better way to do that
than to make it competitive! The scoring system will be, of course,
completely subjective and the winner will receive nothing except the
love and adoration of their dozens of fans.
2010 was certainly an eventful year, and now that we have the benefit
of 20/20 hindsight, maybe there were some predictions we should have
- There will be a couple PvP shooter MMOGs to hit the scene,
and both will end up launching PvE co-op expansions to end the year.
- Duke Nuke-em Forever will once again make it through
another year without bothering the public with a pesky release date.
Long live vaporware!
- Jay Mohr will host the contest portion of Blizzcon - and
they will somehow find a co-host so awful that she will make Jay look
amazing by comparison. The double interview at the same time bit was
pure comedy gold though, good work Jay.
- Though it
will be heavily alluded to, Age of Conan will not make its way to the
will finally force Blizzard to release something before its ready - but
the masses will be so overwhelmed by the radical reduex of Azeroth that
they will never even notice.
Without further ado,
let’s take a look at last year’s
picks and pans
and tabulate them into
the amazing Predict-o-Meter:
Star Trek Online will see an initial amazing launch with
solid sales but then will see a sharp fall once people realize that
having green skin and pointy ears only really looks good if you're an
orc or an elf.
A+ Prediction here -- we’re off to a great start! I give this one 12
out of a possible 10 points.
Aion will spend the first half of 2010 earning back
players and will finish off the year with a spectacular expansion and
respectable NA/EU numbers.
Well, it looks like we may have just undone our goodwill. I suppose
Aion still has “respectable” numbers of players gathering in its
cities, but those are all spamming gold ads, unfortunately. I give this
prediction a 2 out of 10. Hey, I’m being charitable! ‘Tis the season,
Final Fantasy XIV and Star Wars: The
Old Republic will be to 2010 what World of Warcraft and EverQuest 2
were to 2004.
If Savanja’s referring to one being a colossal disappointment then this
predication is half right. I think, however, that next year we may see
some sort of gaming double rainbow and SWTOR may be in that
mix; it just didn’t come to pass this year. 1 out of 10.
Savanja gets a final tally of 15 points -- not bad, but definitely
bolstered by hitting it out of the park on that first one.
I predict that World of Warcraft:
Cataclysm will run into a player base that doesn't want to reroll to
see all of the new content nor will it be satisfied with just five new
levels and a few new zones, but that won't stop WoW from continuing to
dominate through the next year only to be rivaled by Blizzard's new
Early numbers refute the first part of this prediction, and poor Xerin
got no love from Blizzard in the form of an announcement of their next
MMOG, but he is spot on about WoW’s dominance. 5 out of 10.
I predict that Star Trek Online will
run into the same problem all of the similar games have and will
designate itself into a niche market that's slightly larger than the
other niche markets all of the other current MMOGs are in.
Our second home run! Xerin certainly nailed this one and kudos to him.
So, now that the pressure is on, what will he follow it up with in this
year’s version? Check back next week to find out. 10 out of 10
I predict that there will be another 50
nameless, newsworthy-less Asian MMOGs that have more players than most
pay-to-play NA games but with way less content, smaller budgets fewer
things to do. This trend will not stop and will continue throughout the
Free-to-play games actually improved quite a bit over the past year and
we saw the flood of nameless games slow to a trickle as bigger budgets
stepped in. There are still way more of them than there should be, so I
will concede a partial hit here. 5 out of 10.
2 mostly correct predictions and one kick ass piece of prognostication
give our X man a total score of 20. Not bad work at all.
Star Wars: The Old Republic will have
the most successful sci-fi MMOG launch to date. There will be no
articles this week as the Ten Ton Hammer staff will have force choked
each other into a state of unconsciousness.
I hate to give zero points here-- it’s a solid prediction but just a
year too early it seems. 3 out of 10 on the strength of the force
choking line alone.
We'll finally learn the secrets behind
Once again Martuk makes a little piece inside of me die with
predictions that I want to come true. For reminding me of this I am
forced to give 0 out of 10. The greater the risk, the greater the
reward, I suppose.
Cataclysm will be a huge hit and break
record sales as Blizzard will revamp old zones to keep them useful.
Something I have been saying developers need to do for years.
Vindication! Martuk is redeemed! 10 out of 10.
13 points for our ever vigilant master of the newsreel. However, had
the calendar been extended another 6 months, he would easily be at 30.
Aion will continue to contract and
server mergers will be announced.
Wednesday July 14th – Aion servers merged. 10 of 10!
Cataclysm will shatter previous sales
records and WoW will remain at the forefront of MMOG subscriptions.
While it has been out less than a week at the time of this writing,
server load is at an all-time high and Blizzard execs were recently
spotted zooming away from Southern California Ferrari dealerships in
shiny new epics. 8 out of 10 due to lack of sales reports – but you
know I’m right.
The Lord of the Rings Online will be
the next Dungeons and Dragons Online, going free-to-play and seeing a
I am on fire this year--another spot on pick! Maybe I should give up
this writing gig and make my way to Vegas, or at least open up a sports
betting tip line. 8 of 10 because “nice resurgence” is vague and
26 out of 30 is a pretty solid score, but I may end up removing myself
from the final results since it would look a little suspect if I won
the article I penned.