Star Trek Online at Ten Ton Hammer

No pansy "set to stun" orders here. Stargate fans will want realistic combat.

I Don't Know. Something about Chevrons.

The quick and dirty truth first: I don't know much about the Stargate franchise, and I simply don't care. I saw the movie that started it all back in 1994 and enjoyed the film, but I have never felt compelled to watch any of the series that resulted from it. From my brief interactions with some of the Stargate Worlds (SGW) fan base, I don't know that I'd ever want to try the game. I'd rather get a Boyzilian.

My bias aside, I am first and foremost a fan of gaming, so I recognize that Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment (CME) might have a small hit on its hands. Even so, I see it as "the unpopular kid versus the bullies at best." SGW will likely launch before TOR and STO, which will be critical for it to have any chance of success. The same fans who sit around in pajamas watching the popular Stargate series on the Sci-Fi channel are likely also fans of Star Wars and Star Trek. If those fans latch onto SGW first, they may be less inclined to leave when the other franchises land on store shelves.

I see the fate of SGW playing out one of two ways. If CME can create a game that is fun to play and does not feel like a Call of Duty clone, Stargate fans will be thrilled and present a consistent, profitable player base. A few other curious MMOG players will get drawn in by friends and the lure of a game that plays different from the rest. If CME produces Tabula Rasa with a different skin, the result will be much the same as it was for NCsoft. A few hardcore Stargate fans will love the game, but it will be on life support in short order. I'm willing to bet Lord British has greater influence over gamers than Richard Dean Anderson, so I don't see a lot of non-fans coming to this game regardless of the outcome.

EVE for Dummies

One early criticism of the last game, Jumpgate Evolution (JGE), is that is seems like it is designed to be EVE Online Lite. That is, I've heard several people complain that developer NetDevil seems to be making its game a more accessible version of CCP's EVE. Admittedly, the most I know about the game came from the Ten Ton Hammer VIP Access interview.

If JGE really is EVE Lite, it's not a horrible move. New players find EVE hard to get into because of established guilds that essentially run the galaxy in EVE's single server and because skilling up in the game takes real time that no amount of grinding can reduce. Despite the steep learning curve in EVE, the game is very steady in its popularity, and it certainly seems successful. NetDevil would do well to try to capture the gamers who crave a good science fiction MMOG and cannot handle the massive hurdles in EVE.

It may lack the mass appeal of an established IP, but JGE could be the most innovative space MMOG of 2009.

But then, I doubt NetDevil is really trying to make EVE Lite. I'm sure the newcomer on the block wants JGE to be its own game with standalone qualities. I don't know many people who get into the industry to be lazy hacks. But few people have heard of NetDevil, and those few who have remember only the failed Auto Assault.

JGE probably has the steepest hill to climb. The franchise is new. The developer is relatively unknown. NetDevil lacks a built-in fan base like the other IPs have. That doesn't mean the game will be bad or that NetDevil sucks. It just means they have to work to overcome the subtle bias gamers have for the unknown.

If JGE is as thrilling as its makers would have you believe it will be, it's possible that several sci-fi geeks will give it a whirl. But don't expect established super powers to quit EVE to start back at zero. And don't expect Star Wars, Star Trek, or Stargate fans to pass up their flagship titles to explore the universe in JGE. The game will need to be a runaway hit and get rave reviews from the word go to stand among the giants it competes with in 2009. The good news is that JGE could be the most innovative of the 2009 space titles, and it likely has the smallest budget of the games. That would mean a small but dedicated fan base could keep the game profitable.

Parting Thoughts

What have I accomplished? Well, I've stated the obvious by asserting that Star Wars and Star Trek are popular IPs. I have pissed off a lot more Stargate fans than I had previously, and I hedged my bet with JGE by saying it could be good but won't ever be very popular. Just remember my words when the games mentioned here all go live. I don't consider myself the ultimate expert on all things MMOG, but I'm no slouch. I've been watching trends for a long time, and I called AoC a flash in the pan before most anyone else (Exhibits A, B, and C all rolled into one). The Old Republic will be a critically acclaimed hit. Star Trek Online will do well enough just on Trekkie subs to make Cryptic money. Stargate Worlds will struggle to survive18 months, and JGE will suffer crippling losses to the other three titles. BioWare wins the next space race.