In the initial week of the war, there were a number of serious
engagements, including a pair of four-hour battles involving more than
1200 pilots. The carnage was unlike anything yet seen in EVE history,
and despite their first two errors, confidence on the KenZoku side was
high. As one of the KenZoku directors, Waagaa Ktlehr, put it: "With all
odds stacked in favor of Goons and their buddies, it's going to be even
more hilarious when they fail to take Delve for the second time. Bring
it." While the invading forces were gradually succeeding, this was a
race, and gradual success amounted to total failure. If KenZoku
refrained from making more mistakes, they were well on the way to
gaining Sov 3.
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On February 12th, KenZoku made an error which resulted in the total
collapse of the defenses in Delve. In the aftermath of a 1200-pilot
slugfest in the J-LPX7 system, which was a minor loss for KenZoku,
Waagaa Ktlehr warped his Aeon-class mothership, a supercapital ship one
class smaller than the mighty Titans, to a stargate. Motherships, for
what it's worth, cannot enter stargates; there was no real purpose for
the Aeon being there. Unsurprisingly, the invading forces dropped a
capital fleet on the Aeon and
destroyed
it, along with
ten KenZoku capitals
who had attempted to defend Waagaa. Fighting continued in another
system in the immediate aftermath of the mothership's destruction, but
the loss clearly impacted the KenZoku level of control; two and a half
hours later, while attempting to defend the system 8WA-Z6, a routine
capital jump went wrong, and Sir Molle's Titan was left out in the
open; just as with Waagaa, the supercapital was immediately ambushed
and
destroyed.
Six thousand dollars down the drain.
One might guess that the critical, war-ending error was the loss of the
titan and the mothership, but it was what happened after those losses
that actually ruined everything for KenZoku. Exhausted, having had a
historically bad day, the KenZoku command gave the order to log off the
remnants of their fleet in the station in PR-8CA, a system which
KenZoku and their allies had been using as a form-up point throughout
the war. Except this time, rather than sending the capitals of their
'pets' home to a different system, the entire combined capital fleet
was docked and logged off in PR-8CA, presumably to make things easier
logistically the next day. It wasn't something that had been chosen
deliberately, it was just a slip - a slip which lost an entire region.
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As soon as the KenZoku fleet logged off, the invaders locked down
PR-8CA and covered the station with warp disruption bubbles, preventing
any kind of egress. As I write this, the PR-8CA station has been camped
around the clock by invading forces every day for more than three
weeks. While individual KenZoku pilots have escaped PR-8CA by
abandoning their ships and 'podjumping' or using jump clones to get
out, 230+ capital ships remain trapped within. Without the
use of
their capital ships, KenZoku has been completely unable to defend
against the marauding coalition capital fleet, or to prevent
innumerable Goonswarm control towers from being erected across Delve.
With hundreds of invader pilots living in the system, every breakout
attempt since February 13th has been foiled, and because of this every
KenZoku station in Delve, Querious and Period Basis has been seized. Up
until this point, the 'race' for Delve was a close thing and KenZoku
was doing well; after their capital fleet was trapped in PR-8CA, it
became a rout, allowing the invading forces to capture all of the
KenZoku stations with a week left on the clock. What had been a slow
expansion of control became an
explosion.
As a member of the Goonswarm leadership, it might be more traditional
for me (from a propaganda perspective) to claim that these victories
against KenZoku were a result of superior planning or cunning on the
part of my alliance and our allies. However, if one looks at these three
turning points in the war with a sober eye, each one can be traced to
an error made by the KenZoku leadership that we happened to seize upon.
This war, like so many others, was lost by the loser, not won by the
winner.