Posted Wed, Oct 13, 2010 by Space Junkie
#4: The PLEX Spike
The price of PLEX cards to extend subscriptions has increased by about 50mil over the past month. This may be attributable to any of the following: the PLEX for Pakistan charity project run by CCP; deliberate market manipulation; or a reduction in supply of PLEXes because of less being purchased with dollars or euros, perhaps because of a reduced scarcity of ISK or a general lowering of the value of non-ISK assets. In any case, it is an interesting trend to watch.
I would advise against investing in the PLEX in the short term, as prices may subside after a month or two. If prices have not corrected themselves by the new year, then they are probably up there to stay, and will continue their gradual trend upwards.
#5: The Near Future: Incursion
What the future holds, only a swami or moderately intoxicated Icelander can be sure. But that hasn't stopped market-watchers from trying to dredge up every bit of information available about the upcoming Incursion expansion. By guessing the important changes ahead of time, wise investors can make ten or twenty times their investment. Of course, foolish investors can find that their speculative purchase is not longer worth even a fraction of the pre-expansion value.
One of the noted possibilities is that Nanite Control Paste (a critical consumable used to modules that have damaged themselves from overheating) may soon become much harder to produce. The reason being that the amount produced by the blueprints on the test server has been changed from 10 to 1. If this is a real change and not a red herring (as it may well be), expect the ingredients used for making the paste to go up in price, namely Data Chips, Gel-Matrix Biopaste, and especially Nanites. These items are also used in making other planetary materials, meaning that there will be more upward pressure on the price of Biotech Research Reports and Transcranial Microcontrollers. It is generally expected that there will be more uses for planetary materials, post-expansion.
On the other hand, Incursion promises to make it much easier to run planet-side material extractors. This would mean that, barring other concerns, planetary materials would get much cheaper, especially the basic materials that are harvested raw, or taken through one step of processing. Speculative purchases of random planetary materials seem like a poor idea, given this information.
The Sum Totality Of Market Analysis
The overall trend in pretty much all markets in EVE Online is that of stabilization following the Tyrannis fallout, which was the most economic chaos that I have ever seen in this game. This is mostly due to the removal of stabilizing factors on that economy, most notably the mineral price floors. Incursion will probably not have such wide-reaching effects, since there is no information about further large-scale tampering with minerals. Still, it will likely cause a great deal of chaos within the specific market of planetary materials. From the speculation if nothing else.
One final thought: even if an item will not be in exceptionally high demand after Incursion, there is profit to be made. So long as enough people believe it that the price of that commodity skyrockets. Cash out early, and often.