Ten Ton Hammer - Taking MMO Gamers to the Next Level!

Many games have attempted to capture all of their initial sales as continuing subscriptions, many have failed. Thus is the saga of subscription based games. Few games enjoy numbers that increase month over month like World of Warcraft. One notable exception is EVE Online that started slow and has continued to build momentum over years of interaction with a very robust player base. The flipside of the equation is Age of Conan and Warhammer Online, both enjoyed incredible robust initial sales, only to see their number plummet after the initial month. Aion’s fate is yet to be determined, but there are some interesting patterns developing that may give us some insight of how Aion will fare compared to previous games.

First the Good News

Aion has an excellent head start on other games because it has been available for public consumption longer than its predecessors. Thousands of people have been hammering away at the game, so the game has worked well from launch. The server queues were a big issue at first, but as NCsoft predicted, they are a thing of the past (I haven’t had a queue in while on my server). At this point there is no fundamental reason for a player to cancel a subscription.

In addition to making sure the game works well, the game drives players to the end game. Previous games such as Age of Conan and Warhammer had excellent early game experiences only to fall flat. Aion has its sights set on players from level 25 to the level cap. This means that any player below that level does not get the feeling of seeing the whole game, and thus a carrot to stick around and see it. City and Keep Sieges were supposed to do that for Warhammer and Conan, but the game fell off so dramatically before players could even get to that point to enjoy it. MMOG players are motivated by leveling and achievements, so putting a goal out there for us to attain is highly motivating.

Now, the Not So Good News

Few games have the staying power to overcome the doldrums of the mid-game. The mid-game also arrives right about the time players are determining whether or not they want the monthly subscription to hit their credit card. If those levels are uninspiring then so will the re-sub rates. Aion is well rooted in the high risk, medium reward camp that some might call a bit grindy. If the mid-levels don’t provide enough fun factor for the average player, then the populations will be tapering off severely. Hopefully all the hype about the Abyss and Rifting is well founded and allows players outlets to have the fun they seek.

Should I stay or should I go?

Besides being a Clash song from yesteryear, staying or leaving is always a fun topic. The good news about MMOGs is that you can leave, then come back and then leave again. Of course that is not what the game developers want you to do, and if you stay away too long and take all of your friends, the game may fold (see Tabula Rasa and Auto Assault for details). An interesting poll was taken about whether or not people planned on re-subscribing when the time came. The poll was on a fansite and taken within a week or two of the game opening. Regardless of the timing or the source, the results from the poll in conjunction with evidence I’m witnessing in the game leads me to believe that Aion will enjoy a healthy re-subscription rate.  The guild I’m in continues to grow, the players are leveling up nicely and the overall feeling is a sense of permanence, or maybe it’s one of investment. I’m not getting that transient MMOG player feel like I have in some other games at launch.

The WoW Factor

In Aion, the players I’ve interacted with for the most part do not consider themselves WoW players. In other games I’ve heard some mantra of “I’m playing this until <insert game or expansion on the horizon here> comes out. I have not heard that at all in Aion. I’d expect to hear “I’ll play this until Cataclysm,” or maybe even Star Wars: The Old Republic, but neither of those have been mentioned. Maybe Aion is enjoying the mass influx from Vanguard, Conan and Warhammer (which seem to be the three common games mentioned when asked “which game did you come from?”). Of course Cataclysm and Star Wars: The Old Republic are both a long ways from launching (2010 and beyond?), so maybe a lack of alternatives is also helping Aion. World of Warcraft is experiencing an interesting period in its product lifecycle right now. Never has gear been so easy to get, yet so unrewarding. Whether or not people see Aion as a way to show true achievements may be playing a factor in Aion’s early success. The question is whether or not WoW players have the stick-to-it-ness to get into the end game and enjoy those achievements.

Group Decision

Aion is solo friendly early on, but the challenge really ramps up without bringing some friends along later. I wouldn’t say players can’t solo to the end game, but the wear and tear on your psyche might be a bit high. It’s just a hunch, but I’d bet a lot of Kinah that players active with a group are much more likely to stay with the game than those choosing to go alone. I’m sure this is a constant among MMOGs, I would give it more weight in Aion than I would in more solo friendly games like WoW though.

Marching On

Aion offers a little something for everyone and allows players to level up via questing, crafting or gaining resources via PvP. Whether or not the midlevel content is compelling enough to keep players occupied through to end game is the big question mark right now. Preliminary reports are positive, but there will always be flame war just over the horizon as people decide whether or not they are staying. So far the discussions have been fairly calm, but we’ll take another look prior to next month’s re-subscription and see how the temperature is then.  Is your guild going to blow apart after the first 30 days are up, or is your permanent group remaining permanent?