A recent news post on the official ArenaNet blog discussed the launch date and recent quietness in regards to Guild Wars 2. There isn’t much need for me to analyze the blog post itself, because it can be easily summarized as “it’s better to work really hard on a game and finish it then it is to release it early.” However, in the meantime we can take a look at just when we can expect the game to hit store shelves.

We first need to start with what we know they have completed or is at least working. Combat, movement, inventory, questing, and things like spellcasting along with any announced game mechanics are currently working in the playable demo. We know that ArenaNet is extremely conservative when it comes to talking about features and game mechanics. They will only announce something that they have currently working/functioning in their own closed version of the game. This explains why the profession reveals only contain a small listing of skills, because those are the only skills they currently have finished and working in proper order.

We also know that ArenaNet has a very active testing department and that a closed “alpha” test like in the original Guild Wars is almost a necessity for GW2. Without some form of testing phase there cannot be a release and a testing phase would need an entire quarter in order to run through, if not longer. Then there is the possibility of a more open, key entry required, beta test to work out the last few kinks in the game before launch. All said, that’d require at least two quarters from start to finish.

The ArenaNet blog has been kinda silent this month.

This year, as it is, is a wash. World of Warcraft: Cataclysm is dominating every single gaming website out there and is in the minds of most online gamers as its launch ramps up in December and continues to dominate through January. After that I would completely dispose of the first quarter in 2011 because there is no way they can launch without any buildup hype or any form of testing.

That opens up the absolute earliest being the second quarter of 2011, but that’s probably when the testing will begin in some form or another and run through the third quarter of 2011. That leaves, in my honest opinion, a launch date somewhere in the late third or early fourth quarter of 2011. We will probably see a large number of game mechanic reveals, profession announcements, and more at the start of the year once the WoW hype dies down a bit and then we’ll see a timely release in the later part of 2011.

Of course, I’m not an expert seer or anything in that regard and can’t read the future, but it’s very logical that the game will need at least six months of hype, testing, and more hype before we can see boxes on the shelves of the store. We also know that the game is far from being complete, especially with some of the comments in the latest posts.

So, since the release is looking to be a rather long time from now, we can in the meantime think of cool things to do. Like more Guild Wars Beyond content. The entire Gwen storyline should be enough to hold us off for a bit, at least until we can start hearing about awesome content ideas again.

What are you doing while you’re waiting? Come to our Ten Ton Hammer community forums and discuss what you’ve been doing in the meantime.