In the World of Warcraft player vs player (PvP) scene, there is nothing more competitive than the arenas. This is where players strive to out rank each other for amazing rewards. When a season starts players push to reach a high team ranking to earn enough points to get the items they need to upgrade to move even higher in the ranking system. After a while though they have all the pieces that they can upgrade and are left in limbo until the next season starts.

While players are eagerly awaiting season 4's start, they are also waiting for the Wrath of the Lich King's release. The timing on both of these things lead Byron "Messiah" Mudry to look at the question "Is season 4 too late?".

Season Lengths

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This shows the high level of damage that the PvP hunter helms have compatered to various PvE gear.

When arena seasons started way back at the beginning of 2007, I don't think anyone truly understood the impact they would have on the game. Arena gear quickly became an easy way for players to get epic gear to be able to start doing harder content. Many guilds now request players have at least 1/2 epics (between PvP and crafted) before being allowed in on Karazhan runs or other starting raids. While not meant for PvE, some of the gear is much better for PvE than any thing else available for players outside of raids.

Season 1 started January 30th 2007 and ran until June 19th, a period of 20 weeks. This was followed by Season 2 which ran from June 20th through November 26th, for a total of 23 weeks.

The current season (Season 3) is by far the longest, at almost 50% longer that the previous two seasons. Season 3 started November 27th and is still running 29 weeks later. Since Blizzard has already said that they will provide a few weeks notice before launching the new season. This means that we are looking at a season of at least 31-34 weeks in length.

How Long A Season Should Be

More important to me than how long a seasons is, is how long a season should be. A season to me should be long enough that an average team can not quite get a full set of gear from the season. They should have to make choices as to what they get each season and those choices should be difficult. This allows players to constantly feel a sense of progression through the seasons. If there is a period of time where they are not working towards something then, they will lose interest.

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The points an average player earns per week, and the cost of current season items.

A full set of Arena season gear costs 8,250 arena points. With an average team having a 1500 point rating that means that a 3v3 team earns roughly 300 points a week. This means that it will take an average team 27 weeks to get a full set of armor but not a weapon. However a team of just a few hundred ranting points higher at 1700 earns 530 points a week and can get the 8,250 points in just 15 weeks. A top ranked team with a 2100 or higher arena rating earns over 1000 points a week, meaning that a season stops being beneficial for them a mere 8 weeks after it starts.

While the above assumes that a low ranked team will never get a full set of season gear during the current season, that should be viewed as ok. If it were not then each season would have to last long enough for everyone to get a seasons gear. This would mean that the average player would get bored of the season long before the next rolls around, as they would have everything they needed progression wise already.

Messiah's Take On It

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Even as an average player, Messiah already has pretty much everything he needs and points banked for next season.

While I got in on arenas late, since for the longest time I could not stand PvP, I have been playing for long enough to see how the seasons flow. At the beginning of a season, everyone is thrown together at the 1500 rating. This means that in the first week or two everyone is fighting vastly different ranking teams. Over the next weeks they spread out and you start fighting similar teams and earning gear.

However since high ranked teams, or even teams that are smart and delay gear purchases for the newest seasons gear have an advantage and can move up the ranking quicker. This also means that if anything season 1 should have been the longest, as players needed the most time to gather gear since they started with nothing.

If season 1 should have in theory, then season 4 should be the shortest. This is due to season 4 essentially being less worth while than the other seasons, as presumably when it ends, Wrath of the Lich King will be released and level 70 gear no matter how good will be replaced with level 80 gear. Also due to the length of season 3 many teams are coming in with a large amount of arena points saved up, meaning many players can buy 2 or 3 pieces of season 4 on day one.

Rumors abound on the internet as to when season 4 will start and when WotLk will be released. A few of these rumors tie together nicely though. One is that Season 4 will start when the Arena tournament ends July 15th. Tie this with a rumored fall launch of WotLK some time after Blizzcon in September and you would have a Season 4 of roughly 12 weeks.

This all means that in the end Season 4 is likely to be the shortest lived of the seasons, with the least impact, other than potentially gearing players up for the release of WotLK. Combine all these issues with the likely assumption that arenas will move to level 80 after WotLK is released and you have issues for season 4. Where is the pressure to get gear that will be replaced so quickly.

At this point, I feel season 4 is really too late in arriving for most players. Only the absolute best teams will come near to completing their season 4 sets before the launch of WotlK. The rest of us normal players will get a piece or two before WotLK comes out. If we do get a full season, and season 4 lasts a full 20-25 weeks, we will all be cursing how long the exansion is taking. I really don't see a win here.

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The Messiah has had his say, what’s yours?  Do you believe season 4 is too late be be useful? do you have points stored? How long do you feel an arena season should be? I want to hear your comments and explanations.

Email me at: Byron Mudry - ([email protected]) or post in our forums thread!