How the war in Delve was won, or more importantly lost
Almost
every piece of strategic advice you find on the internet is
completely worthless. Every day, I inevitably see some EVE forum
denizen bleating about Sun Tzu, a famous WWII general, or the latest
overwrought management screed (14 Steps To Be An Effective 4 Hour Rich
Dad Millionaire, et al), perhaps hoping that some of this received
wisdom will filter through the ether and save their internet spaceship
alliance from whatever specific fix they happen to be in. It never
works, of course, because Sun Tzu wasn't writing about a drug-addled
Icelander's idea of an internet spaceship game. Don't even get me
started on the WWII analogies. Never trust the wisdom of
anyone
talking about what Rommel would do if he had a fleet of sniping
battleships at his beck and call.
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I've had to sift through piles of such offal while reading other
people's forums - honorless spying sort that I am - and there
is
one principle that has consistently held true in EVE, and yet I've
never seen it popularized. Here it is: "Wars are not won by the winner;
they are lost by the loser". In other words, between roughly
equal forces, things are usually not won through the winning side
deploying some stunning tactic or beautiful offense, but rather the
loser making a critical error and the winner identifying the mistake
and exploiting it. Until the 'oops' moment, the strategic situation
trends towards stalemate. As an example of this in action, let's look
to the war in Delve.
By now, the war in Delve has reached a denouement of sorts; while
Goonswarm's CEO will not be landing on a mothership and hanging a
'Mission Accomplished' banner from the bridge deck, every station owned
by KenZoku Alliance (formerly known as Band of Brothers, before that
pesky '
disbanding'
incident) has been seized by Goonswarm and its allies. The four week
race to capture Delve before KenZoku's sovereignty defenses reached the
level necessary to prevent access to capital ships was won with a week
left on the clock; despite all the flailing and chestbeating on the
myriad EVE forums, this epic conflict appeared to be less of a military
campaign than an execution. Why? Which errors in judgement allowed the
war to go from
here
to
here
with such rapidity?
Before the war began, two critical errors occured on the losing side.
First, the much-discussed Haargoth defection and disbanding; this was
an error of basic corporate security writ large, where a player who had
been absent from the game for four months was allowed to maintain roles
in the executor corporation of that now-dead alliance. Had BoB not made
this error, I wouldn't be writing a weekly column here, and Goonswarm
wouldn't own Delve. But enough ink has been spilled on that topic
already.
The second failure was made when the KenZoku leadership
published
the entirety of the BoB secure director forums for the EVE-playing
public to rummage through. Two days prior to this, when Haargoth Agamar
flipped sides and joined Goonswarm, the Goonswarm Intelligence Agency
had set about using his forums access to begin archiving the BoB
director forums with an automated system. In order to avoid detection,
the entire process would take nine or more hours, but midway through
the archiving we judged it more worthwhile to pull the plug, disband
BoB, and potentially sacrifice our archiving project for the greater
good. As soon as BoB was disbanded and their directorate caught on to
what had occurred, Haargoth's BoB forum account was banned, though the
archiver kept running - except that now, each page it pulled had a
delightful 'you have been banned' notice. While we had successfully
acquired about 40% of their director forums, the rest of the archive
was a series of useless and identical 'banned' pages.