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In The Trenches

Sins of a Solar Spymaster #31 - Lessons from a Failed Invasion

Posted November 4th, 2009 by The Mittani

Know when to fold 'em
Invasions are one of the more common events in nullsec, yet they are always the focus of intense interest, captivating the attention of the playerbase. The vast majority of invasions fail, with the aggressing alliance falling afoul of the defender's forces, running out of momentum, or suffering a grievous self-inflicted error in judgement. In short, odds are good that an invasion in nullsec is going to be an utter trainwreck, and on the off chance that things go smoothly, the carnage on the defending side (and the ensuing drama and cascade) is just as entertaining.

Yet despite the commonality of invasions in nullsec and their repeated public failures, the actual mechanics of why invasions fail is rarely discussed. Usually, the aggressing party retreats to lick its wounds while loudly trumpeting obscurantist propaganda to cover the shame of failure. Lies and deception are a critical aspect of war, and in EVE as in real life the old chestnut of 'attacking in the other direction' isn't just a terrible cliche, it's common practice.

Recently, my alliance invaded Esoteria to assault the residents there, Systematic Chaos (SysK). Like most invasions, things went terribly wrong and we ran into the spaceship-game equivalent of a brick wall. But rather than trumpet the old bromides to mask a failure ("We're better than you" or "We still control your game"), let's have a sober look at an assault gone awry.

Like most invasions, failures began adding up in the planning stage. Three occurred before a shot was fired.

EVE is a spaceship game, and sometimes people get bored. Actually, an awful lot of the time. Some wars are started out of a need for an alliance to grow to deal with an expanding membership; some are motivated by personal, long-standing grudges. Goonswarm invaded SysK because the directorate were bored and had nothing better to do. Initially we went to Esoteria to help a few dissident corporations in SysK overthrow their leader, who had allegedly been treating them like pets. But once we arrived, that situation had changed and the corporations we hoped to help had backed out of their plan. We then concocted a reason to excuse our boredom, something about "removing SysK to change the balance of power between GS and Stainwagon," the power bloc SysK is a member of, but that rationale doesn't stand up to serious scrutiny - defensive war brings blocs closer together, rather than breaking them apart. If you're going to throw an invasion, do it for a hard, obvious reason. If it takes longer than 15 seconds to explain, you need a better cassus belli. Invasions require a clear objective.

Having decided to go to war with SysK 'because', the Goonswarm directorate announced this Grand New Plan to the membership in an offhand way. There was no propaganda campaign to get pilots fired up, engaged and interested in the adventure. Wars, like all mass movements, need to be sold. When the invasion began to falter due to a crushing lack of interest on the part of our pilots, the directorate backed up and attempted to explain why we were in Esoteria - only to run afoul of the '15 second rule' mentioned above. But regardless of twisted rationales, all invasions need to begin with a drumming up of support and interest. If you begin the process after the first shots have been fired, you seem like you're trying to dig yourself out of a hole, rather than rallying around the flag.

A proper invasion can't be delegated to a small group of people. Directors tend to have critical positions in an alliance, and those positions have necessary functions. When we ran into Esoteria, the whole show was being managed on a day-to-day basis by a bare handful of directors; the rest of the 'leadership' was blissfully ignoring the war and going about their usual business (stealing moon goo, no doubt). When things began going hellishly wrong, the directors 'in the know' were overwhelmed with work, and those who hadn't been paying attention to the war couldn't help shoulder the burden. Director disengagement at the outset of the war was a killer.

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