Invasions are one of the more common events in
nullsec, yet they are always the focus of intense interest, captivating
the attention of the playerbase. The vast majority of invasions fail,
with the aggressing alliance falling afoul of the defender's forces,
running out of momentum, or suffering a grievous self-inflicted error
in judgement. In short, odds are good that an invasion in nullsec is
going to be an utter trainwreck, and on the off chance that things go
smoothly, the carnage on the defending side (and the ensuing drama and
cascade) is just as entertaining.

Yet despite the commonality of invasions in nullsec
and their repeated
public failures, the actual mechanics of why invasions fail is rarely
discussed. Usually, the aggressing party retreats to lick its wounds
while loudly trumpeting obscurantist propaganda to cover the shame of
failure. Lies and deception are a critical aspect of war, and in EVE as
in real life the old chestnut of 'attacking in the other direction'
isn't just a terrible cliche, it's common practice.
Recently, my alliance invaded Esoteria to assault the residents there,
Systematic Chaos (SysK). Like most invasions, things went terribly
wrong and we ran into the spaceship-game equivalent of a brick wall.
But rather than trumpet the old bromides to mask a failure ("We're
better than you" or "We still control your game"), let's have a sober
look at an assault gone awry.
Like most invasions, failures began adding up in the planning stage.
Three occurred before a shot was fired.
EVE is a spaceship game, and sometimes people get bored. Actually, an
awful lot of the time. Some wars are started out of a need for an
alliance to grow to deal with an expanding membership; some are
motivated by personal, long-standing grudges. Goonswarm invaded SysK
because the directorate were bored and had nothing better to do.
Initially we went to Esoteria to help a few dissident corporations in
SysK overthrow their leader, who had allegedly been treating them like
pets. But once we arrived, that situation had changed and the
corporations we hoped to help had backed out of their plan. We then
concocted a reason to excuse our boredom, something about "removing
SysK to change the balance of power between GS and Stainwagon," the
power bloc SysK is a member of, but that rationale doesn't stand up to
serious scrutiny - defensive war brings blocs closer together, rather
than breaking them apart. If you're going to throw an invasion, do it
for a hard, obvious reason. If it takes longer than 15 seconds to
explain, you need a better cassus belli. Invasions require a clear
objective.
Having decided to go to war with SysK 'because', the Goonswarm
directorate announced this Grand New Plan to the membership in an
offhand way. There was no propaganda campaign to get pilots fired up,
engaged and interested in the adventure. Wars, like all mass movements,
need to be sold. When the invasion began to falter due to a crushing
lack of interest on the part of our pilots, the directorate backed up
and attempted to explain why we were in Esoteria - only to run afoul of
the '15 second rule' mentioned above. But regardless of twisted
rationales, all invasions need to begin with a drumming up of support
and interest. If you begin the process after the first shots have been
fired, you seem like you're trying to dig yourself out of a hole,
rather than rallying around the flag.
A proper invasion can't be delegated to a small group of people.
Directors tend to have critical positions in an alliance, and those
positions have necessary functions. When we ran into Esoteria, the
whole show was being managed on a day-to-day basis by a bare handful of
directors; the rest of the 'leadership' was blissfully ignoring the war
and going about their usual business (stealing moon goo, no doubt).
When things began going hellishly wrong, the directors 'in the know'
were overwhelmed with work, and those who hadn't been paying attention
to the war couldn't help shoulder the burden. Director disengagement at
the outset of the war was a killer.