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Survey Results Predict SWTOR May Put a Huge Dent in WoW Subscriptions

Posted Wed, Nov 23, 2011 by Martuk

Activision Blizzard’s stock has been downgraded from buy to neutral following the published results of a new survey that indicate more than one million players may bid farewell to World of Warcraft with the launch of Star Wars: The Old Republic. Blizzard has already suffered hefty losses to the aging MMORPG announcing that it had lost more than 800k players at its latest financial earnings call.

The survey conducted in coordination with Peanut Labs indicated that more than half of current World of Warcraft players have grown tired of the game. Researchers polled 381 online customers and found that 50% plan to buy Star Wars: The Old Republic and another 38% expressed interest.

Using other research data, including other competition, Lazard Capital Markets calculated that World of Warcraft could lose between 900,000 and 1.6 million subscribers following the launch of Star Wars: The Old Republic, which is slated for release on December 20th.

But as we all know, studies and online gaming can be hit and miss when it comes to where players will gravitate. And if there is one thing we’ve learned over the years it is that the MMOG market is always in flux. World of Warcraft has been king of the hill for a long time and they’ve managed to gain back many players that they’ve lost during that time to lots of competition and in some cases even gain ground. The question now is – how much longer can they stay at the top of the hill?

What do you think of the survey and research conclusions? Tell us your thoughts in the comments below.

Source: Develop - Warcraft 'could lose 1m players to Old Republic'


scare mongering, so 381 people are meant to speak for 11 million? And whats this other data? Don't throw headlines like this around without the data to back it up.

Im sure one day WoW will fall, hopefully to Swtor. But blatantly unrealistic and shallow research does not warrant this story.

I couldn't say without looking at their methodology, but if properly done -- and I'm sure this survey was -- 381 people could easily represent the opinion trends of 11 million. Market research is a fairly exact science, but remember, these are only trends in how the MMO market may go. It cannot measure intangibles and therefore cannot predict what will actually happen.

I can understand WoW players saying they are tiring of the game. As much as I enjoy it, I'm tiring of the game, but I have no intention of leaving, and I really am not that exicited by SWTOR. I enjoy the milleaux, but I'm really not a hard core Starwarsian.

It depends on the PVE quality of SWTOR, if they follow other MMOs, and make PVE fights a joke in terms of mechanics, lots of ppl tend to go back to wow, but if they make interesting mechanics, outstanding lore, and great gameplay they can end WOW's reign, but again, we are talking about a game with over 3 thousand quests, loads of lore, and outstanding boss mechanics VS the huge amount of MMOs that dont really care about PVE, and thats the reason wow reigns till now.

I couldn't say without looking at their methodology, but if properly done -- and I'm sure this survey was -- 381 people could easily represent the opinion trends of 11 million. Market research is a fairly exact science, but remember, these are only trends in how the MMO market may go. It cannot measure intangibles and therefore cannot predict what will actually happen.

I can understand WoW players saying they are tiring of the game. As much as I enjoy it, I'm tiring of the game, but I have no intention of leaving, and I really am not that exicited by SWTOR. I enjoy the milleaux, but I'm really not a hard core Starwarsian.

Someone is worried

I remember when AoC was launched. Over a million players left WoW to play that game at launch, after 2 months, 60% had returned.

WoW's a strong game, Star Wars has an attrative theme. But is it as polished as WoW or will it be like many newly released mmo's, like paying to play a beta-test game?

"Scare mongering?" rofl

It's a survey. They're going for a percentage, not an exact number, or they would have polled EVERY WoW subscriber. WoW has been losing customers for a long time despite any new games being released, it's nothing new. Cataclysm wasn't as great as many people expected it to be, and many people jumped ship. It happens. It's unrealistic to expect every decision a company makes to be the right one. Who knows, maybe the pokemon expansion with the Pandas will draw those customers back.

I intend to ditch WoW at first opportunity a fairly decent other game comes on the market.
After months of playing I am still running around in blue pvp head and shoulders. There are
one week cooldowns on everything. My only gearing opportunities lie in getting 980 Valor points,
and waiting another week to be able to make any more. I can of course run raids where the other
9 players may or may not be geared or experienced enough to help and of course, the gear I need is
10% drop rate and 3 other party members may be eligible to roll in it if I'm lucky enough to have it
drop in the first place. If I don't get the drop I need I of course have to wait another week to try again.
This is because Blizzard wishes me to continue to pay 15 bucks a month for as long as they can milk me
for it. I should be able to gear myself decently for raids on my own and not rely on other people to do it
for me. There are not even any ways to get decent crafted gear because its only available in certain gear
slots. The so called (easy raids) are hard to do and many wipes for even a party of FL geared players
nevermind JP geared players. Most guilds doing Firelands won't invite you unless you are really well
geared. Some elite players scoff and say they are easy, but how many people can actually say they have
completed BoT, To4w, Bwd with the whole raid in pre-FL gear and at least half not knowing the fights which
is common. I am only playing WoW due to no other appealling options and will never return unless I hear
that the 1 week cooldowns are gone and I can grind unlimited valor points and purchase gear for every
gear slot. To the couple hours in the Evening or 1 day on the wekend players this is probably not an issue.
But to me its boring and frusterating knowing I have to wait for 3 months to grind out enough Valor to
halfway gear my toon.

well said!!!! There is a lot of catch 22 in this game.

WoW will survive but will take a hit when SWTOR comes out. Every person I talk to or run across is just counting the days, many already pre ordered or have been involved in the beta (like myself). WoW is an awesome game nobody is arguing Blizzards knack for creating games that cost us our social lives lol.. look at Diablo 2 LoD ITS STILL kicking and with Diablo 3 coming well there are just as many if not more, people waiting for that game to come out.

That being said!! Comparing WoW to SWTOR is Apples and Oranges. Sci-Fi or Fantasy? As a kid I grew up to watching StarWars was there opening day etc etc. I played SWG as well. Star Wars has a HUGE fan base. We are still hoping our kids will don Jedi outfits and Lightsabers or run around as Sith trying to electrocute things with their force powers on Halloween. Its just a Bigger name. And because its a bigger name its gonna have a huge pull from the ENTIRE MMO community not just WoW.

I don't see WoW going anywhere at all. But its gonna loose players that's just the way it works. WoW's Content has gone way down hill. Many people will leave WoW based on the Panda's alone. Another 5 level grind and the fact that the game is just TO DAMN EASY anymore. I miss Vanilla personally. I miss feeling like I earned everything I got. Now I level a Priest from 1 to 38 in a day. I love the game and will prolly play them both. I mean I did get the Annual Expansion for the mount and D3. I payed for it so I better use it.

Anyway Blizzard is no push over.... they arent gonna die a flaming death thats just not Blizzard. But Bioware has some swagger of its own and is not to be under estimated. Just my 2 cents.

Nah, i played the beta. Unfortunately SWToR is a huge fail - it looks like a WoW pre-alpha with a little bit smoother graphics :/ I was sure that something like that is coming after DA2, but i really didn't expect so dull childish game.
Good luck to the ppl who really buy that....

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