by Enrique Caroli on Sep 24, 2008
This will equal a "break even" point
In a bout of typical bland semi-pessimism, an analyst from Stern Agee (old time stock brokerage) believes that the total number of Warhammer Online subscriptions will eventually level off at somewhere around 250 to 300 thousand subscriptions. The good news is that means that the analyst is predicting Warhammer to be successful. The bad news is that means the analyst is predicting Warhammer to be just barely successful.
But he admitted that the number could jump as updates and expansion packs are released, adding that it would take about "six months or so" to get an idea of the MMORPG's sustainable user base.
He added that retail checks indicate initial sell-through is tracking "about in line with (but not above) expectations." He forecasts a higher mix of revenue from Europe compared to the U.S.
"...Based on our estimates for sell through, it would require about 20 percent to 25 percent of the purchasers to remain long term subscribers--which we believe is achievable," Bhatia stated in an investor note.
Of course, with the world (and in particular the U.S.) economy in such dire straits at the moment, it seems likely that analysts would make their numbers rather conservative. While it's not sure yet that Warhammer will reach that 3 million subscriber number that Mythic is hoping for, early reaction certainly seems to say that we'll do better than 300 thousand.
For more information on the analyst's predictions, please check here.