by Byron Mudry on Jun 19, 2007
This weeks “Topic of the Week” is a little different than past topics, since it really was started already, last week by Maegwynn. That thread was started by the comment from a comment in an article that states:
Since it is such an interesting topic, I decided to steal the thread, and make it into one of our Topics of the Week and get more discussion going on it.
Can any game last 10 years? Sure, there are a few out there. Starcraft, Diablo, Ultima Online just to name a few. I know that I still play a ton of old games, but none of them require me to still pay. Which may be the difference. If I want to load up Warcraft 1 or 2, Diablo or Starcraft I can. Ten years from now, if I want to load up WoW, I would still have to pay.
Population plays a big issue with how long an MMO lasts. At some point population declines and servers need to be merged until you get to a point that there are not enough servers to make it worth the companies efforts to maintain them. Here WoW has a huge advantage as all the investment is surely paid off, and with an 8 million plus player base, they can afford to lose 90% of the players and still be bigger than most successful MMO's. That's without looking at all the players they keep gaining too. Now that you can pick up the base game for dirt cheap (and I'm sure BC will be soon as well), it keeps attracting more players. Especially with all the hype it gets over having so many players to begin with.
MMO's and player retention has traditionally been driven by two things though, content and community. One WoW does, extremely well, the other, not so well.
Blizzard has put out some amazing content. Even though they took forever to put out the first expansion, the game at that point was far different than the game that had been released 2 years before. Even after the Burning Crusade was release, they continue to change and expand WoW through excellent free patches. They have shown that they listen to their players and release content that the players want.
Community is a sore point for me in WoW. Sure I am in a guild, and yes we do end game raiding, but its not the same as most MMO's. In most MMO's. you level together, quest together, etc, etc. In WoW, 1-69 is essentially solo, with a bit of grouping for the odd instance. There isn't all that much community until you hit the end game, and by that point people are driven to join guilds for the gear more than the social atmosphere. I've said it about a million times before though, I would prefer WoW to be a bit more group based, but realize that the ability to solo in it is one of the things that has made it such a success.
Just to through a bit of a curve ball out there, there are other non-game issues that lead to people staying or leaving the game. On of which is financial considerations. Most of us don't think about it, but sometimes it hits people how much they have paid into a game in time and money and that makes them leave. I know one friend that recently quite because he looked at it and said "I've paid $100 for WoW and BC and another $450 in monthly fees since it came out. The game isn't worth spending more on". I would probably argue the other way, that WoW is cheap at only $15 a month because while you play it you are FAR less likely to buy and play other games. But 10 years, means that a player that has been at it since the beginning will have shelled out roughly $1800 in monthly fees plus the game and expansions, which is certainly no small amount.
Messiah's OpinionWith games it is so hard to guess what's going to happen. To me WoW has already had a great run, can it stick it out for 10 years more? I'm going to complicate my answer a bit and give a conditional answer.
I believe World of Warcraft could survive 10 years given the following conditions are met:
Blizzard continues to put out additional free patched content in the form of at least 2 new raids and a new dungeon or quest zone each year At least one new expansion package each 12-18 months A graphics update roughly mid-way to the 10 year pointGiven those 3 main things, then I absolutely believe WoW can be around for 10 years more, probably even longer. Without them, it becomes a lot more hazy. I know that a few other MMO's have gone on for very long runs, however all of them have something that WoW is light on, community.
Sure WoW has community and you can make friends in it and there are guilds, but not to the degree in many other MMO's. WoW by it's nature is much more solo orientated than most MMO's. I don't think many would argue that this has lead to much of its success, however it could also become it's downfall. Sure it's easy to play and level, but what keeps you in an MMO after everything is done... In most its your friends, community and sense of belonging.
The Messiah has spoken, now its you turn...
* One to two years, other games are going to take it's place.
* At least another five.
* Ten years is pretty much bang on.
* WoW is indestructible, it'll last forever.