Vanguard's Release Date: A Glimpse into the Future...

By Shayalyn

"Brad said that a 9 month beta would be just about right. Since
Beta 1 started in October, that means Vanguard will be released in July,
2006."

"I called GameStop and EBGames and BestBuy and all of them told
me that Vanguard will be out in November of this year!"

"I think Vanguard will be released on the anniversary of the
date EverQuest launched in 1999."

"Well, I pre-ordered my game at [insert game shop here], and
their computers say the release date is May, 2006."

Ah, the speculation--runs rampant, doesn't it? And yet, the more we scan
the virtual horizon for a sign of Vanguard's arrival, the more nebulous
it seems. Does anyone really know the release date for Vanguard
aside from the game's developers, who have certainly set a tentative goal?

I
decided to take a closer look-indeed, to reach beyond the boundaries of
space and time and this virtual universe called the Internet. I opted
to stretch past the narrow limitations of my human consciousness and reach
into the subconscious, where true secrets lie hidden.

I did a tarot reading.

Okay, picture me as Lady Aurora, the Gypsy tarot reader. (No, I'm not
a real gypsy; suspend disbelief, damnit!) Picture me with wavy black hair,
tied up with a colorful scarf. I'm wearing flowing robes in shades of
purple and gold-the sort of robes all the caster-wannabes on the Official
Vanguard Forums would drool over. I'm seated at my round table, which
is decked out with a fringed black and gold tablecloth. The room around
me is dimly lit with glowing candles. The hazy air smells of spices and
incense. I push my crystal ball to one side, and I begin to shuffle the
cards. (Never mind that I shuffle like a Vegas Texas Hold 'Em dealer.
Again, suspend disbelief. Please.)

In my most mysterious voice I say, "Tell me of the present state
of Vanguard's production!" And with that, I lay out two cards. I
intone again, "Tell me of the future state of Vanguard's production!"
I lay out two more cards. And finally I cry, "Give me a release date!"
as I set down two more cards.

What do I see? What do we have here? Let's take a look….

The Present

Ah, these two cards tell me quite a bit. I see The Lovers and
the Ten of Wands. As the lovers are totally focused on each other
(you should see them--shameless!), so are the developers of Vanguard completely
focused on crafting their game. In fact, they may be focused to the point
of excluding others: designers and artists put in long hours and leave
their families wishing the game would just launch already; devs work tirelessly
with little down-time, even when some down-time might help refresh them.

The
Lovers also point to a need for making some difficult choices--what
to leave in, what to leave out. What will the developers push to have
completed by release? Which things, no matter how precious to the dev
team, will have to be released in an expansion?

Next, you should get a look at the Ten of Wands. Man, this is
one over-burdened fella. He's trudging up a hill carrying a heavy load
of ten wands-which are taller than him, I'll have you know-and by the
looks of the mountainous road he's walking it'll be a while before he
can lay them down. Hmm, yes, it does indeed look like there's a lot of
work to be done where Vanguard's concerned. And by the look of steady
determination on the man's face as he carries his load onward, I'd say
Vanguard's development team possesses the resolve to get things done no
matter what challenges they face.

The Future

Ah,
The Four of Wands is a welcome card, indeed. Two dancers prance
on a square platform. Wands at each corner of the platform support a canopy.
These people look happy, and they have every right to be! You see, they
have completed a phase, reached a goal--their work is perfected and they
are celebrating their achievement. They have worked tirelessly to build
a solid foundation, and now that work culminates in a rousing success.

Sounds quite promising, doesn't it?

On the other card, the unflinching King of Swords looks stern and
demanding, but I know what he's after. This guy has an ironclad yardstick
by which he measures achievement. His choices are based on logic, rationality,
ethics, and principles. In other words, ol' Kingie (Brad, that you?) isn't
about to rush Vanguard to completion. He may be passionate about his game,
but it's that passion that lends itself to a sort of discipline that will
not allow for cutting corners. The king will stand firmly on his position
that Vanguard will be released when it's sound and ready to meet its players.

Release Date

Yeah, yeah…this is what you all really want to know, isn't it? Patience,
my dears--Lady Aurora gets to these things in her own time. Sit back and
sip your tea; I'll read the leaves in a minute.

I
close my eyes and summon my knowledge of the cards before me, and I see…

The Moon. No, not the one in the sky. And no, not yourmoon,
silly! It's a tarot card of the major arcana, which heralds an overpowering
event. Could it be? Could it be….

Oh, keep your shirt on. Did you listen to a word I said about patience?
See, The Moon is a card of mystery and things which are hidden.
Beside a rippled pool, a wild dog and a coyote stand between two stone
pillars, howling at the full moon overhead. What do they know? What can
they tell us?

Before we decide that, let's look at the next card: The Page of Swords.
I drew this card to represent the season in which Vanguard would be released.
To most tarot readers, Swords represent the season of Autumn. Who am I
to disagree? So, Vanguard could be released in the fall of the year (at
least where the Northern Hemisphere is concerned). Yes…it certainly
could. But that Moon card in all its mystery overrides the fledgling Page
of Swords (who looks like a kid running with scissors, I have to confess),
and tells me that Vanguard will most definitely be released…

In the month 2006!

Stop Looking at me That Way

Listen, Lady Aurora never promised you that tarot reading was an exact
science. I merely trusted my gypsy (*cough*) intuition to guide me toward
an answer. Can I help it if you don't like my answer? Hmm? Certainly not!
I told you what the cards had to say. I've done my job.

By
now, you're a little loopy from the incense fumes (it's a secret family
recipe, and no, it's not for sale!), but you want to know what the point
of all this really was. Well, first and foremost, the point was to entertain
you, and I hope I've done that. (Can I take off this crazy scarf, now?
It's hot in here!) But my other goal was to show all the speculators that,
while it's fun to speculate, no one method for determining a release date
is more effective than another. You can phone game stores, scour dev posts,
pay attention to your tingling Spidey senses, count on your pre-order
without reading the fine print that says there's no release date guaranteed…and
you'll get exactly the same results I did, with neither method any more
or less credible than the other (unless you really do have Spidey senses,
in which case you can alert us all, once you know when the game's about
to hit the shelves).

You see, the release date for Vanguard is not yet known to the general
public or even the press. The closest we've come to learning a release
date was Brad McQuaid's August 29, 2005 pronouncement on the Official
Vanguard Forums that, "Vanguard will come out in the month of 2006."
The truth of the matter is, none of us know and none of us can accurately
predict a release date because only the Sigil and Microsoft insiders know
for sure, and I'm willing to bet their release date is a goal, not an
absolute.



What's that? You want me to probe the minds of Brad McQuaid and Jeff Butler
for details? That would require mental telepathy. Who do you think I am,
the Amazing Kreskin?

Geeze, you goofy people--get a grip!

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