Ten Ton Hammer - Taking MMO Gamers to the Next Level!

At the close of 2007 many segments of the gaming industry were busy making predictions about which upcoming games might sink, which would swim and which would transcend the need for silly things like water physics to be claimed an instant success.  Ten Ton Hammer was no exception, as not just one, but two different staff members donned their seer's caps and gazed into their +2 Crystal Balls of MMO Predictioneering.  

Each came up with their own predictions for what would prove to be a very busy year for the MMO industry.  Between AAA launches, major expansions and an ever growing list of promising F2P titles, the field was wide open.  Let’s take a look back at each of their lists and see who deserves to be crowned the 2008 Ten Ton Soothsayer!

With the help of my trusty Magic 8 Ball and some additional assistance by my good friend Zoltar, I’ll be highlighting the main predictions along with any supporting information that seems pertinent.  One Hammer will be awarded for each correct prediction, with extra sprinkles on top for those cupcakes that were perhaps a bit too eerily accurate.  Also, since there's not an even number of predictions between the two, I'll be providing their overall accuracy percentage which will help in determining the winner.  

Crystal balls just aren't what they used to be.

With the release of Jumpgate Evolution, NetDevil will find some well-received success and reinvent how to create a “massive” game.

Ask again later. Try again next year!

Details will begin to emerge concerning CCP|WhiteWolf's upcoming World of Darkness MMOG.

Reply hazy, try again!

Cryptic Studios will finally release information concerning Marvel Universe Online, which will not be canceled.

My sources say no.  ;)

The name and basic details of 38 Studio's MMORPG will be unveiled.  Terms like “ambitious” and “revolutionary” will be bantered about as the major forum-goers try to determine what the game will consist of.

Concentrate and ask again!  Since this one's partially correct though, I'll award it ½ a Hammer.

Aion will be a surprise hit in 2008.

Cannot predict now.  Perhaps in 2009?

Sony Online Entertainment will regain their lost reputation with the release of Pirates of the Burning Sea and the rising popularity of The Agency and FreeRealms.

Signs point to yes.  In true soothsayer fashion this one's pretty much open to interpretation so it gets 1 Hammer.

K2 Networks will continue to dominate the free-to-play MMOG market in North America, although Acclaim will gain more headway in 2008.

It is certain.  Though the F2P market saw quite a bit of expansion this year, not only has K2 managed to stay on top, but Acclaim has indeed made some headway via picking up the North American release of The Chronicles of Spellborn.  + 1 Hammer.

One studio will go under, leaving nothing but scattered ashes and dust.

Outlook good.  Or I suppose that should be bad as this particularly unfortunate form of lightning has struck more than once this year.  NCSoft seems to have taken the hardest hits with not only studio closures but the decision to discontinue operations on Tabula Rasa early in 2009.  +1 Hammer.

Grand Total:  3 ½ Hammers out of a potential 8!
Accuracy Average:  43.75%

Zoltar makes his own predictions on who the winner will be.

Lord of the Rings Online – I expect that we will see numerous incentives for LotRO players to stick around the Turbine camp.

Without a doubt.  +1 Hammer.

Vanguard - SOE has done monumental things since taking over Vanguard from Sigil. Even their diligent work can’t save this title with three AAA products hitting the market in 2008. Add the hurdle of competing with SOE’s own EverQuest 2 title and I see nothing but declining subscription numbers for Vanguard.

Better not tell you now.  With subscription numbers typically a closely guarded secret in the SOE camp it's hard to know for certain what kind of population Vanguard is currently seeing, though it could easily go either way.

EverQuest 2 - I expect subscriber numbers to remain stable, but one of the former devs to remain unstable.

It is decidedly so. +1 Hammer.

Tabula Rasa - Expect to see Tabula Rasa numbers grow in 2008.

Don't count on it. *mourns the impending loss of TR*

Stargate Worlds will slip to 2009.

It is certain.  +1 Hammer.

Wrath of the Lich King - The expansion that many of you have been waiting for will release during the Christmas season sucking players back from both Age of Conan and Warhammer Online.

Signs point to yes.  +1 Hammer.

Games for Kids - The kids market will eclipse the adult MMOG market in 2008.

Most likely.  Though the hard data hasn't been tallied for the full year yet, there's a very good chance this will prove to be true.  For now though I'll go ahead and give this one ½ Hammer.

Age of Conan - Age of Conan will become the #2 largest selling MMOG at launch behind only World of Warcraft. As players realize that AoC is not WoW many will lazily drift back to their former home, especially when Wrath of the Lich King ships. AoC will end 2008 as the #3 MMOG in North America.

You may rely on it.  (emphasis mine on 'at launch')  +1 Hammer.

Warhammer Online - Warhammer Online will end 2008 as the #2 MMOG in North America.

As I see it, yes.  +1 Hammer.

World of Warcraft - WoW will remain the undisputed heavyweight champion of the industry. Expect the WoW team to make changes to the game that give Warhammer Online players an excuse to migrate back.

Yes – definitely.  Not only does WoW continue to dominate the market, but with a long list of proposed changes to the game announced just after the release of WAR, this prediction has proven to be eerily accurate (granted many of those changes have yet to be implemented in the game at this point, but still...)  +1 Hammer.

Grand total:  7 ½ Hammers out of a potential 10!  
Accuracy Average:  A whopping 75%!

So there you have it folks!  Boomjack wins this round of MMO Predictioneering, thus claiming the title of Ten Ton Soothsayer, 2008.  All things considered, Cody made a valiant attempt, but unfortunately a few of the games mentioned slipped into 2009 release schedules.  If it's any consolation, Zoltar said he was absolutely certain that WoW would see a mass exodus just prior to the release of Lich King, with millions of players flocking to the online craze known as Ponystars.