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The beginning of a new year is
always an interesting time. Resolutions
are are made and occasionally even kept as we venture forth into an
unknown future that eerily resembles the present in nearly every
regard. It's also a time of quiet reflection as we ponder our successes
or
failures from the previous year and tally up the difference to see if
we've come out ahead. Here in the US we traditionally refer
to this as the beginning of the dreaded "tax season".
In the wacky world of online
gaming, however, the harkening of a new
year also means that it's time for us to don our Robes of the Oracle
and make our best guesses as to what might become of our
beloved
intustry over the next 12 months.
Will
the titles we expected to see
last year finally get an official release date in 2010? Will even more
titles be pushed back to 2011? Will the combined forces of the
details surrounding Blizzard's next MMOG project and the release of
Star
Wars: The Old Republic
cause a massive black hole that threatens
to consume the entire planet? And perpahps most importantly, will this
be the year when sock slots are finally added as a standard equipment
slot in MMOGs? I mean, really, could you imagine stomping
around in plate armor
with no socks on?
Before we dive into Ten Ton
Hammer's MMOG predictions for 2010, first
let's take a quick trip down memory lane to look at our biggest hits
and biggest misses from our
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/node/61314">2009
predictions.
Ten
Ton Hits
-
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/183">Guild
Wars 2
will slip into
2010. - Danny "Ralsu" Gourley -
Free-to-play games will continute making inroads in North American
markets, but they'll still be viewed as the bastard children of the
MMOG industry. - Eric
"Dalmarus" Campbell -
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/aion">Aion
will release in North America, temporarily shoring up NCSoft's
prospects on this side of the Pacific. - Jeff
"Ethec" Woleslagle -
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/73">Stargate
Worlds
will be pushed back to 2010, if not cancelled. - Eric
"Dalmarus" Campbell -
New fantasy MMOGs will finally be a rarity instead of the norm as more
companies focus their attention on other genres in an attempt to break
open new markets and avoid direct competition with Blizzard. - Eric
"Dalmarus" Campbell
For those of you keeping score
at home, not only is the above list of 2009 predictions fairly
represntative of our overall accuracy (read: the majority of our
correct guesses), but perhaps most interesting is
how eerily accurate Dalmarus ended up being with the bulk of his
predictions. Most prominent among them would be the idea that fantasy
MMOGs would finally begin to fall out of favor as the setting of choice
for new releases. True enough,
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/117">Star
Trek Online,
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/998">All
Points Bulletin
and
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/926">Global
Agenda
each have scheduled releases in Q1 2010 and perhaps more importantly
steer completely clear of traditional fantasy settings.
"No Elves" indeed! Well, unless you consider Vulcans to be space elves
that is.
Ten
Ton Misses
-
Details for 38 Studios'
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/883">Copernicus
project will not only be revealed this summer, but the title will walk
away with at least one "Best in Show" award from the various trade
shows. - Reuben "Sardu" Waters -
Warner Bros and Electronic Arts will announce development of a Harry
Potter MMOG in 2009. - Danny
"Ralsu" Gourley -
The end of 2009 will come and go, and we'll still not see
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/109">Darkfall
released in North America, much to the shagrin of its vocal and rabidly
hardcore fanbase. - Jeff
"Ethec" Woleslagle -
Star Trek Online
will be released in October. - Reuben
"Sardu" Waters -
Before year's end, expect to see an all-inclusive subscription plan for
NCSoft's current line-up that includes extra incentives for players of
their free-to-play titles to make the subscription a more attractive
purchase for them. - Reuben
"Sardu" Waters
Apparently my own Robe of the
Oracle is losing some of its magic, as my prdictions from last year
proved to be as wildly inaccurate as Dalamarus was accurate. I think
one sound prediction I could make at this point is that I know which of
us
most of you will be betting on when we tally the results of our 2010
MMOG predictions next year.
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Considering how I didn't have a
single correct prediction on my list from last year, it
seemed like a wise idea to consult the experts of the MMOG industry to
get their say on what may or may not take place over the course of
2010, so that's exactly what I did.
The writers at Ten Ton Hammer are
second to none so when they offer up their predictions you can
guarantee that each and every one of them will be completely accurate
to the letter.
Except for when they prove not to be, in which case those
particular predictions
are most likely the handywork of invading space aliens sent to Earth on a
mission of MMOG misinformation. (it happens more often than you'd think!)
There are some real gems
contained in the following list, but don't take my word for it - read
on and see how your own thoughts on MMOGs in 2010 stack up against the
Ten Ton Hammer staff!
Ten Ton Hammer Staff
Predictions for 2010
Savanja - Community Manager, Aion
-
Star Trek Online
will see an initial amazing launch with solid sales but then will see a
sharp fall once people realize that having green skin and pointy ears
only really looks good if you're an orc or an elf. -
Aion
(and I swear this is not biased at all... really) will spend the first
half of 2010 earning back their players and will finish off the year
with a spectacular expansion and respectable NA/EU numbers. -
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/2079">Final
Fantasy
XIV
and Star Wars: The Old Republic
will be to 2010 what
World
of
Warcraft
and href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/eq2">EverQuest
2
were to 2004.
Xerin - Community Manager, World
of Warcraft
-
I predict that World of
Warcraft: Cataclysm will run
into a player base that doesn't want to reroll to see all of the new
content nor will it be satisfied with just five new levels and a few
new zones, but that won't stop WoW from continuing to dominate through
the next year only to be rivaled by Blizzard's new MMOG announcement. -
I predict that Star Trek Online
will run into the same problem all of the similar games have and will
designate itself into a niche market that's slightly larger than the
other niche markets all of the other current MMOGs are in. -
I predict that there will be another 50 nameless, newsworthy-less Asian
MMOGs that have more players than most pay-to-play NA games but with
way
less content, smaller budgets fewer things to do. This trend
will not
stop and will continue throughout the next year.
Dalmarus - Contributing Writer,
Main Site
-
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/53%22">Huxley
will still
not see the light of day outside of closed testing. -
Consoles will continue to have MMOG envy. Not because of development
teams, but because of Microsoft and Sony. -
Before the end of 2010, all
of the MMOGs we cover at Ten Ton Hammer will have micro-transactions,
rather than just some.
Martuk - Contributing Writer,
Main Site
-
Star Wars: The Old Republic
will have the most successful sci-fi MMOG launch to date. There will be
no articles this week as the Ten Ton Hammer staff will have force
choked each other into a state of unconsciousness. -
We'll finally learn the secrets behind Project
Copernicus. -
Cataclysm
will be a huge hit and break record sales as Blizzard will revamp old
zones to keep them useful. Something I have been saying developers need
to do for years.
Mattlow - Contributing Writer,
Champions
Online
-
Micro-transactions will invade more games in 2010, with 90% of MMOGs
having some form of them by the end of the year. -
Star Wars: The Old Republic
will be a huge hit, showing game companies how to bring the RPG back
into MMORPGs. -
Funcom will continue pushing out new and innovative combat in MMOGs,
only to have it fail due to the lack of resources to polish the game.
Medawky - Contributing Writer,
Main Site
-
Aion
will continue to contract and server mergers will be announced. -
Cataclysm
will shatter previous sales records and WoW will remain at the
forefront of MMOG subscriptions. -
The Lord of the Rings Online
will be the next href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/ddo">Dungeons
and Dragons Online,
going free-to-play and seeing a nice resurgence.
Medeor - Contributing Writer,
Star Trek Online
-
A Twilight
MMOG will be announced for the soccer moms of the world to unite. -
In related news, Edward, Jacob and Bella will be eliminated as possible
player
names in all MMOGs. -
Subsequently, Cataclysm
will showcase Jacob Edward Bella as an Undead NPC.
Mem - Contributing Writer, World
of Warcraft
-
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/1407">DC
Universe Online
will release with lackluster numbers, however it will make a full turn
around as people fall in love with its combat, customization and being
able to see their favorite superheroes in action. -
With the pay per month game arena getting more and more crowded we will
see an influx of free-to-play titles or games that offer a free-to-play
version across the market. -
Late in the year after the newness of Cataclysm
has worn off, Blizzard will finally announce excatly what its new MMOG
is. The title's daring new ideas will surprise most, and anger some.
Messiah - Contributing Writer, World
of Warcraft
-
Blizzard will further simplify the already simplified game of WoW with
the new character stat and gear system. This will cause hardcore (or
even just intelligent) players to get pissed off that the game is
becoming a joke, however there will be nowhere else to go. -
The huge number of average players and noobs out there will still
scream that the game is too complicated and gear too hard for them to
obtain.
Stow - Contributing Writer, Aion
-
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/38">EverQuest
will be free-to-play with a subscription to any other SOE game by the
end of 2010, helping restore what is becoming a niche community of
nostalgia and little else. -
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/211">Final
Fantasy XI
did several key things right. For one, it had very good storyline.
Secondly, it had very good music. Maintaining those two things while
streamlining the remainder of the game to the casual Final
Fantasy audience will give Final
Fantasy XIV a huge impact on the
market. -
Cataclysm,
given Blizzard is smart enough to make a compliation pack at launch to
encourage new growth, will cause a resurgence in new players and a
possible 10% boost to subscribers due to the redone old world that
everyone is tired of. Extremely smart move.
ZeroMerc - Contributing Writer,
Runes
of Magic
-
Star Wars: The Old Republic
and Star Trek Online,
by hitting the market first, will effectively take away from the
possibility of Blizzard's second MMOG title ever coming close to having
World of Warcraft's
success and cause it to more closely resemble href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/847">Hello
Kitty Online
numbers. -
30 new MMOGs will be announced but only 5 will actually make it to the
shelves. -
An unknown European man who was born in Africa but raised in Japan will
take over Nintendo and then subsequently purchase Blizzard from
whomever owns them that day and move the entire company to the
bottom of the ocean. This in turn will cause them to get enough
first-hand experience to create an MMOG that has over 100 million subs
and oddly resembles href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsaroEr87aI">Ecco
the Dolphin.
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The
MMOG industry wouldn't exist at all were it not for the many fans who
keep the game servers buzzing and the buzz of what lies ahead ever
present on gaming forums. As such, we decided that this year we'd let
our
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/membership">premium
members take a crack at things
and while only a few
ultimately stepped up to the challenge, those who did provided an
excellent perspective on what's both hot and cold as we move headlong
into the new year.
The following list consists
entierly of premium member submissions. While not represntative of the
views and perspectives of the Ten
Ton Hammer network as a whole, they certainly capture the essence of
what many MMO gamers are looking forward to in 2010.
Ten Ton Hammer Premium Member
Predictions
Anacche -
Age of Conan
Guru
-
Rise of the Godslayer
will cause a nice media frenzy and href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/aoc">Age
of Conan
will make a nifty comeback. - With so many massive new
MMOG's launcing in 2010 including href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/306">Jumpgate:
Evolution,
Star Trek Online
and Star
Wars: The Old Republic,
World
of Warcraft
will drop its subs below 10 million steadily. Cataclysm
might see a resurgence for 2-3 months but overall WoW will probably
still remain #1 for total subs, but it will be hurting.
Ralsu - Premium Member and
Former Ten Ton Pony Harvester
-
Star Wars: The Old Republic
makes the Massively Solo Online RPG a reality and hauls in a record
number of subs for any MMOG in its second month. -
Final
Fantasy XIV
captures the console MMORPG market before Turbine and SOE can get to
it. Between FF geeks, the otaku crowd and MMOG vets looking to hop on
the next game with gorgeous graphics, it will have a huge population in
the 3 months around launch. -
Star Trek Online
launches to reviews split between unmitigated praise and heavy
criticism. The game will be big at launch but then slide to pedestrian
sub numbers supported by only the most hardcore fans of the Star
Trek IP. -
Stargate Worlds
finally breathes its death rattle. Six people on the official forums
are shocked.
Darke - Premium Member
-
Star Trek Online
will release and within 2 weeks there will be some sort of official
SNAFU. -
Star Wars: The Old Republic
will be pushed back to the 2nd quarter of 2011. -
href="http://www.tentonhammer.com/taxonomy/term/265">The
Secret World
will be delayed until 2011 along with the new Final
Fantasy. -
World of Warcraft's
Cataclysm will launch to a huge
success as it reinvents the recipe for awesomesauce.
Beerkeg - Global Agenda Guru
-
While Star Wars: The Old
Republic may look awesome, I
feel that it may go the same way as Warhammer
Online
and
drop down to a select few dedicated players. People have a way of
over hyping a game and then crying out in disgust when that game
doesn't live up to the hype they've heaped on it. -
While All Points Bulletin
looks like it could be an amazing game, it will only appeal to a small
portion of the MMOG market and just manage to sustain a level income
that allows the developers to keep the servers running for a good year
or two.
So there you have it folks!
Only time will tell how many of Ten Ton Hammer's 2010 MMOG predictions
come to pass in the new year. I for one am looking forward to making
those discoveries along the way, not to mention finally getting some
socks to put on my character's blistered and bruised feet!
