5 days and counting people!

While other analysts are hesitant to make predictions on holiday sales in this down economic time, Mike Hickey of Janco Partners has no such reservations! Emboldened by the super success of Guitar Hero: World Tour, Mr. Hickey is now predicting that Activision/Blizzard's newest holiday product, World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, will sell at least 5 million copies in the first month after release.

The analyst is also "impressed" at the fact that World of Warcraft's subscriber base has grown to 11 million even amid economic anxieties and two recent major releases, Age of Conan and Warhammer Online, neither of which have appeared to slow the game's momentum.

Based on its existing subscriber base, says Hickey, "We expect the upcoming release of WoW’s expansion pack... would yield a sell-through of roughly 5 million units in the first month."

That certainly sounds like a lot of expansion packs. The thing to keep in perspective though is that means less than half of all subscribers would have the expansion by the first month. Is this a typical thing? Sounds pretty conservative to me.

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Last Updated: Mar 29, 2016