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The 486th edition of Loading... is brought to you by EBgames.com: The authority on gaming.

This is the last Loading... of 2006. I'd wipe a tear, but I can't say I'm sorry to put 2006 behind me with 2007 burning so brightly in the distance. Vanguard, Pirates of the Burning Sea, Warhammer and even Age of Conan may become living breathing worlds in the next 12 months. It's an exciting time to be part of this industry.

Our buff, buxom and scantily clad editors have taken a look back at the MMOG landscape in 2006. Our very own rodeo clown, Jeff Woleslagle has scribed an incredible look back at the industry as a whole, while our team of wordbabes and wordhunks have taken looks at games individually. Will 2006 be a year to be remembered or just a blip in the MMOG lifecycle? Ah, the memories...

• MMORPGs in 2006: The Year In Review
• Dungeons and Dragons Online: Where Have We Been?
• EverQuest 2: It's A Whole New Game
• Gods and Heroes: Short Term Memories

Yesterday I predicted that I maybe, possibly would have developer predictions today. My prediction was like Mel Gibson to a beer, straight to it.

Without further stalling and in the order that I received them...

Developer / Publisher Predictions and Resolutions for 2007

"Personally, I would like to see companies take advantage of the motion sensing technology of the PlayStation 3 and Nintendo Wii; it seems as though it would make for interesting gameplay possibilities and increase user interaction and immersion. I have always felt that players should be rewarded for their skill and ability at playing the game, rather than their avatar’s. "

--A.J. Potter Quality Assurance Tester - Perpetual Entertainment

"More elaborate and detailed in-game economies, including crossover between in game and out of game economies (similar to the Linden Labs approach for Second life). More and more noise will be made about taxing in game economies. Nerds with keyboards descend on Washington waving pale white fists clutching wireless keyboards and mice. Senate and House committee members are nearly trampled to death when someone yells "Free Red Bull and beta passes for everyone!!" during a press conference discussing new gaming legislation..

Ok, the last part I just made up...

Things I want to fix or change:

I want a good, well written and entertaining MMO in some flavor other than fantasy. I'd like to see devs (and funding sources) taking risks on pushing the envelope on genres and story content instead of regurgitating the same old crap over and over and just upping the poly counts.

I'd also like to see more games blur the lines between real life and game space. For instance, second life (admittedly not really a "game" per se) has virtual concerts with real artists and there's a definite blurring of lines between online and offline.

I'd like to see more actual games explore that area.

-- Gary Foster Operations Tools Engineer - Perpetual Entertainment

"I predict that for 2007, there will be a saturation of MMOs from American developers, most all of them being World of Warcraft clones with just a little difference that may not make that game all that much interesting than World of Warcraft. Instead, what companies should focus on is rewarding players for actual skill and not just because a User can play the game.

Also, MMOs should have more interaction and work more towards being immersive. There were very few console-based MMOs, and with the future of gaming expanding into the internet, development companies should try to focus on creating console-based MMOs to reach all households."

-- Renée - Perpetual Entertainment

“In 2007 at least one member of the senate or house will resign due to a scandal involving an MMO. Probably ninjaing epic gear.”

-- Paul Canniff, Executive Producer - Flying Lab Software

“The U.S. government will spend a lot of money trying to figure out how to tax virtual assets, without success.

Every other class will continue to be overpowered, your class will be nerfed.

Forum inhabitants who have spent the last year saying they are quitting their current game to play Vanguard as soon as it comes out will soon be quitting their current game to play Warhammer Online as soon as it comes out, and vice versa.”

-- Drew Clowery, Game Designer - Flying Lab Software

“I predict that Ultima Online will roll back to its 1995 rule set and wipe WoW off the map.”

-- Woody Engle, Artist - Flying Lab Software

“As Pirates of the Burning Sea gets closer to our June launch, FLS Happy Hour will be extended to Happy Hours.

-- Tom Tobey, Senior Animator - Flying Lab Software

“My resolution for this 2007 year is to do my best at spreading the word about Pirates of the Burning Sea and our June ‘07 release. I wouldn’t change a thing in the MMO scene or about our game; we’ll be releasing with some really great games. With Pirates of the Burning Sea showing up in top 10 most anticipated games lists of 2007 all over the place, I’m especially excited to see how the next year pans out.”

-- Theresa Pudenz, Public Relations - Flying Lab Software

“MMO = Elves and Orcs? A change in the wind, says I. Yarrrrrrrrr!”

-- Bruce Sharp, Art Director - Flying Lab Software

“I resolve to ship Pirates of the Burning Sea in 2007. :)

I predict that none of the fantasy MMOs released in 2007 will have any impact on World of Warcraft.”

-- John Scott Tynes, Producer - Flying Lab Software

"2007 will be an evolutionary year for MMO's. Many games that are about to release have been in development for 4+ years already. The next generation of potential "killers" only got started within the past year or so, and some are still getting started up. It'll be a bit of time before we see how those start to shake out, and it could be as much as another year before the upcoming releases end up proving themselves to be either successful or DOA.

My hope is that, as an industry, more of the up-and-coming projects not only live to see the light of day, but thrive. That goes for games and virtual worlds alike. We're still a very young industry and we have a lot to prove to outsiders about the potential for success here. We need to show through our actions and the growth of our communities that we're not limited to "a few million hardcore gamers around the world." We need to prove both to outsiders, and to our own potential customers, that this industry is capable of initially shipping these highly complex products at a respectable level of quality, without losing so many of them before they even get out the door, and without turning people off to the entire genre because of a bad first impression."

-- Scott Hartsman, Senior Producer - Sony Online Entertainment

"My prediction for 2007 is that we'll see new features and an evolution in the MMO world as the bar has been raised and people not only need to meet new standards but surpass them to attract and keep players. For EVE, I hope to see more interaction with the wonderful surroundings and that the storyline will have a bigger impact on players’ lives within New Eden."

-- Chantal Zuurmond, Content Intern, EVE Online

"I think these trends [ http://www.mmorpgchart.com/ ] will continue as they have been without much change. The graphs are pretty consistent and there are few surprises. And I think most new games will go through rocket sales & subscriber numbers before plummeting in 3 to 9 months as they have been. Most new subscriber numbers will come through the big games like WoW, although I think their growth might stall. Who needs more than 6 million subs anyway."

-- Rúnar Þórarinsson, Game Designer, EVE Online

"I resolve to add 50% more Llamas into every game. Most of them will be hidden in unexpected places. Lookout! There’s one behind you!

I resolve not to have any more freakin elves in an MMO, ever.

I resolve to stop using endless lists of internet jargon and lame acronyms to communicate. It’s noobish, IMO, lol :-P

I resolve to stop naming characters things like Durnak, Elwind, and other names that sound like Tolkien sneezing while drunk.

I further resolve not to name characters things like “ikilledyou”, “your_mom” or “Im_a_noob”.

I resolve to advocate quests that do not involve the mass slaughter of an area’s natural wildlife. Is 20xp worth the destruction of an ecosystem?

I resolve to answer the question “why did this random animal I just killed have money and a leather vest for me to loot?”

I resolve to have shopkeepers and innkeepers who aren’t perpetually glad to see you and wishing you safe travels. What drugs are these people on?

I resolve to have more random musical numbers in the middle of game play.

I resolve to bring back sprites and midi files to games, starting with MMOs."

-- Rollin Hafner, 3D Artist - Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment

"One of the greatest achievements of the Stargate SG-1 television series was how it broke down many classic sci fi constructs into manageable chunks which could be easily understood—and identified with—by the casual viewer. This was done by providing clear, simple emotional hooks which allowed the audience to become invested in what these characters were getting themselves into. “Seth” was about Jacob Carter learning to swallow his pride and mend his relationship with his son. “Affinity” was about the community’s natural mistrust towards outsiders, and how people of all walks are victimized by this mindset. These are things that speak to our innermost drives, and resonate on a level beyond the hard sci-fi mentality.
This is one of the many reasons the show was able to last ten years, and it is our responsibility to provide the audience with storytelling that fits this mold. Good storytelling resonates with the audience and elicits an emotional response. It is served by the text, but is not just the text. One of the unique challenges will be finding methods which allow us to accomplish this in the MMO space.
So, my resolution is to help provide our audience with a great story that they can relate to, and perhaps even find relevant on a personal level "

Raph Robbins, Junior Content Designer - Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment

"I think it is going to be very competitive for second place behind us. But seriously though, I think everybody is going to try and follow WOW’s formula (classes, races, leveling, talents, instances, etc.). I think that people are going to have to do something extraordinarily creative to supercede any one of us, the competitors. I think we are doing some very cool things, and our game will rock. Other than that, the big names like LOTR will make tons of money, but we’ll see if they can mix it up at all, and do something great"

-- Mike Whiting, Artist - Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment

"MMO gaming in 2007 – Hopefully we see more niche based MMOs with developers and publishers pushing away from the EQ/WoW paradigm that has dominated this market. EQ2 also needs to fix its combat by slowing down player and mob movement in order to empower some of the more interesting tidbits of their game design. I also want to see MMOs give more respect to crowd control and how it can affect a gameplay system instead of using the watered down WoW approach"

-- Jason Butcher, Lead Systems Design - Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment

"See MMOs done right on a console like the XBOX 360."

-- Jimbo Younkin, World Builder - Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment

"My New Year’s Resolution for MMO gaming is to play even MORE in 2007; Somehow juggling EverQuest 2 and WoW Burning Crusade in harmony, before adding Lord of the Rings online to the juggling act.

Predictions would be that the Burning Crusade will be amazing; EverQuest 2 will continue to improve and develop in depth and breadth; EVE Online will maintain it’s slow rise with Revelations and beyond; Lord of the Rings: Shadows of Angmar will be awesome, and hopefully evolve into a living, breathing Tolkien world; That MMO popularity will spread even further, and eventually become a mainstream social activity bridging countries, cultures and lifestyles on an even more massive scale than they do today.

What I’d change or fix in MMO’s? No grinding or unnecessary downtime at all! I’d much rather be doing a hundred simple quests which take an hour each, that I can eventually complete – than a minute of senseless creature killing just to level. When I am questing, PvP’ing, or exploring and I am gathering experience, honor, etc. – I do so effortlessly and almost invisibly – so I am pleasantly surprised when I ‘ding’ while solving some situation for an NPC, etc. Instead of marking the progress on my experience bar with each kill while estimating level time, and mindlessly slaughtering over and over."

-- Nick Heitzman, Lead Artist - Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment

"Predictions:

WoW will burst onto the scene again with the release of Burning Crusade. Millions of current players will return and a smattering of new players will sign up. Smattering of course being relative, a WoW “Smattering” is still several hundred thousand players. This new burst of steam will result in a stability nightmare for the game itself, chances are servers will be down, long login queues will return.

However I predict this burst in interest will be short lived.

A handful of new titles will launch, most will be in unfinished or incomplete states.
A few will launch, possibly even achieving 250k-500k subscribers however, none will be considered a success because they failed to reach WoW like proportions (despite the fact that all major titles targeted for next year are deliberately niche products and that 250k subscribers is very profitable). This will result in a resurfacing of the “is the market saturated debate”.

WoW will see a subtle decline in overall subscriber base, though Blizzard will not need to worry as the numbers are so large (measured in millions) that the losses won’t matter much.

All of this will combine to put a tremendous amount of pressure on upcoming titles, like ours, to perform or revolutionize the industry. There will be increased pressure from players to see “something new” “something different”. A few titles like Pirates of the Burning Sea or Age of Conan may deliver, assuming they launch stable and bug free.

Things that need changing or fixing:

Successful MMO’s have the same failings. WoW’s end game, eschewing PvP, is identical in many regards to EQ1’s, a game built 8 years ago. Muscle up a huge raid force of real people and kill an evening. To succeed at this level of play requires a tremendous time and real life commitment, this fact will come to a head as the real barrier to entry for MMO’s and the major reason they are not “mainstream”. The most enjoyable elements are the smaller group play and I would like to see new titles, or existing ones, find a way to make more challenging small team game-play. Focusing on great “co-op” experiences of single players games, dissecting what makes 2-6 person play so appealing and pushing that forward. Find a way to allow smaller groups of people to work together at independent times.

In other words, you can still need 40 people, but have them break out into separate groups and accomplish their goals at their own pace, not requiring 4-6 hours an evening, 5 nights a week to “compete”. If done correctly, the hardcore can still excel, making game skill just as important, if not moreso, than time. It’ll all boil down to content, how fun the content is.

On a more personal note, I’d like to see Everquest 2 add new classes. It’s been 2 years, its about time. That game needs a swift kick in the “new” buttocks and new classes is the way to go. Preferably four new classes, a return of the beastlord from EQ 1 and more. I’d like to see it focus on more single group content and more diverse challenges for guilds, a return to the guild based raids would be nice, allow guilds to earn ranks in something other than guild level. "

-- Max Stewart, Director of IT - Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment

"My prediction for 2007 is the increased development of games promoting “social bridging” within the MMO world. There are a lot of great MMO’s available today and the online world keeps growing with the technology within the industry. Experts in the marketing and developer fields have their hands full when it comes creating a game and finding an untapped audience but I think you’re going to see that improve in the next year. More and more new online users are introduced to this virtual world each year and hang out with their friends in chat rooms or on their own “space” pages. Our parents and grandparents are getting online for the first time in large numbers. We all can attest to that -- getting that call from mom to come over on the weekend to fix their machine or show her how to open up and save a picture that you sent them a year ago of little Bobby’s T-ball game. So it makes sense that we bring these casual bystanders to the gaming world and create low barrier to entry ways to interact with their family and friends in an immersive world they can enjoy on that hand me down computer you gave them last Christmas J. If I can only get my mom to work on her alchemy, I will have done my job for the family guild! "

-- Thom Terrazas, Project Manager - Vanguard: Saga of Heroes

"MMOs will reach out to their players in new ways. Continuing the trend of web pages reflecting character performance and achievements, some clever MMO will expand these offerings and come up with new ways to offer information-and even interaction-through mobile devices and the web. Players will be able to play a part of their favorite game in a web browser or on their cell."

-- Dan Parke, Game System Designer - Turbine

"Companies will continue to struggle with making enough content to keep players happy without breaking their budgets; as a result we will see increasing experimentation with procedurally generated content and player generated content. Despite the experimentation, it won’t be until 2008 or 2009 before we see someone get it right enough to have a massive win in one of these areas.
The overall market will continue to grow briskly, as we see increasing numbers of games using alternate billing models, more casual friendly play styles, and other techniques to reach beyond the current player base of MMOs. As the field of games expands, we will start seeing new terms used to describe the games, as people come to realize that Second Life and WoW really are fundamentally different genres, despite both being massively multiplayer and online.

A number of companies will try different settings, in an attempt to distinguish themselves from the fantasy worlds that dominate the marketplace. Despite this, the most popular new games will be in fantasy settings, because it works so well. "

-- Andrew Menard, Game Systems Engineer - Turbine

"We will finally begin to see the true impact WoW had on the MMO industry, as games that were still early in development when WoW launched are emerging. I predict that not only will we see the superficial resemblances to WoW that we’ve been seeing, but also a higher level of polish at launch and a much greater amount of handholding and casual-friendliness than we’ve seen in other MMOs in the past.
Traditional high fantasy will still dominate the market. Dwarves, elves, wizards and sorcery aren’t making way for spaceships and guns any time soon.

Second Life will still continue to dominate media coverage of online games, and the MMO gaming audience will still continue to wonder who all these people that are supposedly playing it actually are. "

-- Heather Sinclair, Game Systems Designer - Turbine

"World of Warcraft will continue to grow, bringing more and more players into the MMO genre. At the same time, the increase in player base will continue to create a healthy environment for other games.

Consoles will become an increasingly important part of online gaming. As part of this, integrated voice chat and simplified control schemes will become more widespread.

More risks will be taken by companies looking for alternative payment schemes rather than the currently popular subscription models. Fewer risks will be taken by companies regarding content and game play models; evolutionary changes to them will be the norm rather than potentially dangerous revolutionary changes. "

-- Stephen Muray, Game Systems Designer - Turbine

"People will predict that ‘the plug will be pulled’ on older, successful franchises, such as UO and Dark Age of Camelot

They will continue to thrive.

Burning Crusade will be the best selling MMO expansion to date.

The internet will melt attempting to deliver the patch that accompanies it.

One major, well funded, well anticipated MMO will slip from a 2007 release to 2008.

It won’t be Warhammer.

Major industry ‘names’ will surface at top level positions in venture capital funded startups.

Few will issue realistic expectations in their press releases.

The MMO to dominate the Asian/European/US market will continue to be so attractive that companies will cater to all three markets.

None will succeed in total world domination.

Pundits will announce that the MMO market is ‘saturated’.

It will continue to grow.

E3 will not be as loud this year. "

-- Walt Yarbrough, Producer - Dark Age of Camelot (EA/Mythic)
I would like to personally thank the individuals and companies that took time to send in their predictions, but alas none of them will take my calls.

I will be thanking those individuals and companies that didn't reply to us by making up predictions on their behalf. I predict that these predictions will begin in the new year.

Do you have predictons for 2007? Would you like me to predict on your behalf?

Let me know, either in the comments section of the blog or in our forums!
--
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Exclusive TenTonHammer.com Content!
12.29.2006

• MMORPGs in 2006: The Year In Review
  "Jeff "Ethec" Woleslagle examines the upbeats and beatdowns of the last year in MMO gaming. Mass media headlines about goldselling, virtual property, and griefing; the varied success of this years numerous game and expansion releases; the discontinuance of games like Seed; encounters with developers authoring the next wave of MMORPGs; trade shows and developer junkets... it was all part of the 2006 MMO landscape. We do our best set the stage for what will prove to be a very exciting 2007 in the MMORPG category."
• Dungeons and Dragons Online: Where Have We Been?
  "Darkgolem looks back at DDO since it's release and Alpha, and how it's grown since then."
• Dungeons and Dragons Online: Lovable Scoundrel Build
  "When a DDO @ Ten Ton Hammer community member asked for input on a bard/rogue build, Ralsu germinated the idea of the Lovable Scoundrel. Now Ralsu shows us how that build panned out."
• EverQuest 2: Crushbone Keep Maps
  "The Crushbone Keep guide has now been updated to include zone maps!"
• EverQuest 2: It's A Whole New Game
  "It's been another great year with EverQuest 2 and the game has made some radical changes. Join Coyote and RadarX as they talk about the best of 2006, and why Coyote is obsessed with Billy."
• Gods and Heroes: Short Term Memories
  "Gods and Heroes hasn't been around long, but don't let that fool you. There has been plenty of action this year with Perpetual and if you missed out, this is a great chance to catch the highlights."
• Gods and Heroes: Don't Fear The Reaper
  "Death is part of almost every game that has ever been made, and is far more important than most people give it credit for. Kiara takes a look at death penalties, how they affect players, and busts out a random song."
• Vanguard: Saga of Heroes - Interview With Nick Parkinson on Open Beta
  "You weren't expecting it, but here it is--open beta for Vanguard: Saga of Heroes is coming your way early next month. Reactions have varied from elation to skepticism to denial. And, of course, there's plenty of speculation. Sigil's community manager, Nick Parkinson, took the time to answer our questions about open beta and lay the speculation to rest."
• Vanguard: Saga of Heroes - Races of Telon
  "On the heels of all the other exciting news leaking from Mount Brad, Sigil has released mounds of new information on each of the races of Telon."
• Vanguard: Saga of Heroes - Cities of Telon
  "Sigil wants to be sure your New Year's resolutions include playing Vanguard. Continuing their recent outpouring of content, they have released a preview for the many cities and villages of Telon."

Hot Content

• MMORPGs in 2006: The Year In Review
• World of Warcraft: Getting Your Mount
• World of Warcraft: Burning Crusade - Shattered Halls Gallery
• Vanguard: Saga of Heroes - Open Or Regional Servers?
• Pirates CGS Online Interview With Scott Martins
• Pirates of the Burning Sea: Exclusive Screenshots
• World of Warcraft: Decursive 2.0

Real World News - You Can't Make This Up

• Church's Old Domain Coverted To Porn Site [Matt]
  Priests for porn activist group claims responsibility.
• Woman's Necklace Dates Back 10,000 Years [Thanks Matt]
  Creationists revolt.
• Robots To Crawl Under The City. [Thanks Matt]
  All hail our knee-deep-in-the-sewer robotic overlords!
• Huge Piece of Canada Breaks Off, Floats Away
  If you were wishing it were Quebec, keep wishing.

Vin Diesel Fact: Vin Diesel won the human race.

As always, thank you for visiting TenTonHammer.com.
- John "Boomjack" Hoskin