Posted Wed, Sep 24, 2008 by Boomjack
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Everyone seems to love to love to speculate about subscriber numbers. Not be left out, Edge-Online talked to Arvind Bhatia of Stern Agee and came away with this,
"EA said it shipped 1.5 million copies of WAR to retail last week.
Arvind Bhatia at Stern Agee told Edge on Tuesday he came to the 250,000 subscriptions figure based on EA's goal to break even on the game.
"Over time, subscribers will drop off and level off at 250,000- 300,000," he said in a phone interview." [read the entire article]
250,000 is an interesting number for a variety of reasons. First, it's a nice round number; a quarter of a million people. It sounds large, but not too large as to make an analyst seem out of touch if the game bombs and only scrapes up 100,000 subscribers.
If the numbers above become reality, 1.5 million copies shipped with only 250,000 people enjoying the game enough to stick around past 30 days then Warhammer Online will have been a colossal marketing success and an enormous gameplay failure. It would mean that only one in six people who were willing to fork out the $50 for the game enjoyed it enough to pay another $15 a month for it. Maybe it is just me, but I don't see that much complaining in the message forums where 'those that must be heard' congregate to protest, grumble, whine or otherwise bellyache about anything that doesn't satisfy them completely and unabashedly.
If only one in three players sticks around that leaves the title with 500,000 players even if Mythic never sells another box of Warhammer Online. Personally, I think the estimate is low and I'm not convinced that basing it on what EA considers a break even mark is relevant.
Time will tell. What is your best guess at Warhammer Online subscriber numbers? Hit the Loading... forums and have your say.
--Ten Ton Hammer Epic Thread of the Day [Thanks to Karen Hertzberg]
14 new MMOG hand-crafted articles today! 240 in September! 2444 in 2008!
New MMOG Articles At Ten Ton Hammer Today [Thanks Phil Comeau for links and Real World News]
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