Every year, the Ten Ton Hammer staff has a little competition. We take
a look at the upcoming year, take out our magic crystal ball of +1
divination, and attempt to predict the results of the MMOs for the
coming year. Last year the competition was between John "Boomjack"
Hoskin and Cody "Micajah" Bye, and after a year of industry-wide ups
and downs, Boomjack came out the clear and unabashed
winner while Cody hung his head in shame
. This year, we've
got at least five network participants: Eric "Dalmarus" Campbell, Tony
"RadarX" Jones, Reuben "Sardu" Waters, Danny "Ralsu" Gourley, and Cody
"Micajah" Bye. Perhaps we can even get the Editor-in-Chief, Jeff
"Ethec" Woleslagle, to weigh in on things!
While the results of the contest won't be in for a year, we are happy
to present you with four sets of our individual predictions. Leading
the list are Star Trek
Online, Star Wars: The Old Republic
, Champions Online,
with a few remarks made here and there about the two upcoming NCsoft
and Guild Wars 2
As always, these lists represent the thoughts of individuals and don't
necessarily represent the opinions of the whole Ten Ton Hammer network.
Without further wait, here are the predictions from four of the five
"Ralsu" Gourley Reasons...
believes that Runes of Magic will finally raise the bar for F2P games.
will be a huge success for a free-to-play game, and it will grease the
wheels for microtransactions in the West.
2. The servers for EverQuest
will shut down for good. The
Pass has given EQOA life support for all of 2008, but SOE will pull the
plug in 2009.
3. Turbine or SOE will release a good MMOG for the console that will
cause other companies to take a closer look at that market. Since all
of the current generation consoles have online capability, someone will
look to cash in on that player base.
will slip to 2010. Even though NCsoft is hard at work on the sequel to
their runaway hit, the company has Aion
on the horizon and will need to focus on that title after the loss of Tabula Rasa
reduction in staffing.
5. Someone will give an interview on the condition of anonymity about
why developers choose to work on troubled projects without pay,
explaining why the gaming industry is the one field where workers
won’t quit even after weeks with no pay.
will be unsuccessful in capturing a share of the market against City
Despite an excellent IP and quality production, it will be unable to
draw away enough gamers from the established superhero juggernaut, City of Heroes
When DC Universe Online
hits later in the year, the mass appeal of the IP and the
cross-platform approach will deal a huge blow to an otherwise excellent
game from Cryptic Studios.
7. Trouble getting Champions
to take hold will cause Cryptic Studios to shift
significant resources into the development of Star
and rumors of a rushed release for STO will cause a stir in the gaming
8. Warner Bros and Electronic Arts will announce development of a Harry
Potter MMOG in 2009. The game will take the approach Turbine did with The Lord of the Rings Online
putting gamers in the role of unknown agents contributing to the events
of the novels.
Bonus 2010 prediction: Variations of Draco (xDracox, Drayco, Drako)
will replace Legolas as the most popular character name in virtual
1. NCsoft will regain some footing with the launch of both Aion: The Tower of Eternity
and Guild Wars 2
Before year's end, expect to see an all-inclusive subscription plan for
NCsoft's current line-up that includes extra incentives for players of
their free-to-play titles to make the subscription a more attractive
purchase for them.
suggests that 38 Studios' Copernicus project will win a "Best in Show"
2. 38 Studios' “Copernicus”
project will not only
be announced this summer, but will walk away with at least one
“Best in Show” award from the various trade shows.
Expect this to be the game that has everyone talking this summer.
will launch to mixed reviews, but will
ultimately become a cult hit with a steadily increasing, loyal fan base
by the end of the year.
4. Blizzard will finally announce their 'next gen MMOG project' at this
year's BlizzCon, and it will be for an entirely new IP. Expect the news
to be leaked to the press early, either around the launch of another
triple-A title or, failing that, during SOE's Fanfest.
5. Star Trek Online
will be released in October, following an extremely successful launch
for Champions Online making 2009 the Year of Cryptic.
will be one of the years biggest success stories. Even in such a
diverse year for new MMOG releases, this will be the game that garners
the most mainstream media attention. As a result, flight sticks will
become the new 'must have' upgrade component for PC gamers.
7. SOE's The Agency
will be the first game that successfully bridges the gap between MMOGs
and consoles, but will also spark some controversy due to necessary
install space on the PS3's hard drive. During the 2009 holiday season,
Sony will release a bundled PS3 “The Agency Starter
Pack”, that includes promotional materials for DC Universe Online
which will release sometime in 2010.
8. At least two triple-A MMOGs will release with some form of Warhammer Online
Public Quest system in place. At a glance they'll be similar, but will
ultimately expand on the base concept in meaningful ways.
Eric "Dalmarus" Campbell
1. F2P games may continue making inroads in the North American markets,
but they'll still be viewed as the bastard children of the MMOG
thinks that STO will release before the end of the year.
2. Star Trek Online
release before the end of the year. While its numbers won't be huge, it
will have a large enough fan base to be considered a success and remain
will continue to remain a piece of vaporware.
be pushed back to 2010, if not canceled.
5. BioWare's Star
The Old Republic
will garner the highest number
participants ever recorded as it helps soothe the continual NGE burn
felt by Star Wars fans around the world.
6. SW: TOR subscriptions will break the 1 million mark, even after the
initial 30 days of free play time.
7. New fantasy MMOGs will finally be the rarity instead of the norm as
more companies focus their attention on other genres in an attempt to
break open new markets and avoid direct competition with Blizzard.
8. With SOE releasing all future MMOGs on the PS3, Microsoft will
scramble and announce a deal with a big name company to bring MMOGs to
the Xbox 360 (Huxley
will still not be one of them).
Tony "RadarX" Jones Rationalizes...
1. 38 Studios will find a way to break the record for most hype created
in any year based on some long awaited gameplay footage.
They'll also acknowledge they are finally in alpha testing.
2. SOE will expand microtransaction items based on the success they've
seen so far. The
have a fully integrated system to accommodate such sales.
Cries of outrage will flood the blogosphere for weeks until something
more exciting happens.
thinks Aion won't catch on in North America.
3. BioWare will release more information about Star Wars: The Old Republic
Die hard fans will take exception and start an Internet riot.
4. BioWare will release screenshots and video about their upcoming Star
Wars themed MMOG and hardcore fans will forget about the prior
information after examining their other gaming options.
5. NCsoft's stock will continue to plummet thanks to a sour
economy. They will also continue to reduce investment and
development in North America and concentrate on their core
will take off in Asia but not fare so well in North America and Europe
because we fear stuff that flies.
6. Cryptic Studios will put Champions
in beta giving super hero hope to many
spandex wearing City
players. Online debates will
begin using the ACTUAL Champions
sourcebooks that have been collecting dust for decades.
7. Funcom will pull the plug on a console version of Age of Conan
for the 360 fearing too high of a cost. Expenses will be reinvested in
a PvP revamp and more boobs.
8. IGG will publish a record setting five games in 2009 proving that
there is ALWAYS another untapped theme laying around or a new way to
use an old one. Most will involve pirates and magic.